June 13, 2022 19:06 GMT
We've just published our June 2022 Fed preview, emailed to subscribers (and available on our website):
- June’s FOMC meeting is likely to deliver the previously-promised 50bp hike, but the market reaction to May’s inflation report significantly raised the bar to a hawkish meeting outcome.
- The Dot Plot will signal a more hawkish rate path than had been expected a few weeks ago, but it would be surprising if it came close to confirming market rate hike pricing.
- Backed by the Dot Plot, Chair Powell is likely to signal that 50bp hikes are the base case in July and September, but is unlikely to pre-commit beyond that.
MNI Expectations For June 2022 Dot PlotSource: MNI