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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Fed Preview - June 2023: How To Communicate A Hawkish Hold
MNI Fed Preview - June 2023: How To Communicate A Hawkish Hold
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- The FOMC’s tightening cycle is likely to “skip” June’s meeting, with the Committee holding rates at 5.00-5.25% while signalling that it currently expects to hike at the following meeting in July.
- While data and events since early May have on balance probably justified another 25bp hike, some data have left room for doubt, and the FOMC has set a fairly high bar to further tightening.
- In an effort to maintain a hiking bias, the Statement’s forward rate guidance is likely to remain unchanged, with the updated economic projections showing that an additional rate hike is expected by year-end.
- The main reason to galvanize communications around a bias of future hikes is not just to placate the hawks, but to ensure that expectations of a cut don't rise with any hint that the FOMC is implying the next move will be down.
Note to readers: MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday June 12
FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Source: MNI Expectations For June 2023 FOMC Dot Plot Projections
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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