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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Fed Preview - Nov 2023: Analyst Outlook
MNI Fed Preview - Nov 2023: Analyst Outlook
Note to readers: This is an update to the full MNI Fed preview published on Friday Oct 27. Please see Page 32-36 of this document for sell-side analysts outlooks for the Oct 31-Nov 1 2023 FOMC meeting.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Sell-side analysts are unanimously agreed that the FOMC will leave rates on hold at the November meeting.
- Only a few analysts expect changes in the November FOMC Statement vs September’s. These are mostly minor mark-to-market changes to the descriptions of incoming growth / jobs data (nobody expects a change to the characterization of inflation as “elevated”).
- One sees changes to the Statement’s forward guidance: Morgan Stanley sees it softened by taking out the word “additional” (re “extent of additional policy firming”).
- Regarding financial conditions tightening: analysts estimate that the impact is equivalent to between 1-2 (Nomura) and 4 (Goldman Sachs) Fed rate hikes.
- Three analysts (of the 26 previews MNI read) see one further hike in this cycle: Barclays, BofA, and CIBC. That said, several others mentioned upside risks to their forecasts in their Nov meeting previews.
- All analysts expect cuts starting in 2024, though the starting point ranges from Q1 2024 through the end of the year.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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