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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Fed Preview - Sep 2023: The Last Mile
MNI Fed Preview - Sep 2023: The Last Mile
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- The FOMC will hold rates at its September meeting, while maintaining its tightening bias.
- Despite recent progress on inflation, which will see core PCE forecasts revised down for the first time since 2020, we expect most of the FOMC’s median expectations to be largely unchanged in the latest set of quarterly projections.
- That includes the median rate “dots” indicating one further hike by end-2023, as most participants will remain cautious of signalling that the hiking cycle is over, and 100bp of cuts in 2024.
- Both of these are a very close call though, with risks that the 2023-24 dots shift a notch lower.
- The interplay between the inflation forecasts and implied 2024 cuts in the Fed funds rate projections will be a key market focus of the new projections and of the press conference.
Note to readers: MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday September 18
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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