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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI (NEW YORK) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Sell-side analysts remain centered around a 25bps cut as their base case for the September FOMC. While most previews written after last Thursday’s media reports that the FOMC faced a “close call” between 25 and 50 acknowledge risk of the bigger cut, analysts for the most part retained their previous base case of a 25bp reduction.
- The vast majority of analysts expect a total of 75bp of cuts this year (range of 50bp to 125bp) including September’s decision, with between 25 and 175bp of cuts in 2025.
- For the Dot Plot, the expectation by almost all analysts is for the FOMC to pencil in a 4.6% rate median for 2024 (ie 75bp of 2024 cuts), though this depends in part on the size of this meeting’s cut – nobody sees a median higher than 4.6% though some see a 4.4% median.
- For end-2025, there is a much wider dispersion of expectations, with a range of 2.9% to 3.6%, with most eyeing 3.1% or 3.4%. 2026 and 2027 are seen to reflect rates of around 3.0%, while the longer-run median of 2.8% is largely seen to remain unchanged.
Note to readers: This update of our Sep 13 preview includes analyst expectations (Starting Page 25). FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:
FedPrevSep2024 - With Analysts.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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