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MNI Fed Review - Feb 2023: Only As Hawkish As The Data Allow

FED

We have just published our review of the February FOMC meeting, which has been emailed to clients (Full PDF analysis here).

  • Market rate hike expectations dropped and rate cut expectations rose as the FOMC delivered a half-hearted hawkish message at the February meeting.
  • While the Statement leaned hawkish, and the message overall was that another “couple” of 25bp hikes were the central expectation, Chair Powell cracked open the door to potential rate cuts in H2 2023.
  • In a “mixed message” press conference, Powell repeated that the Fed would “stay the course until the job is done”, but also sounded optimistic on the inflation front and did not push back as forcefully against easier financial conditions as he did previously.
  • While Powell did not give a green light to potential rate cuts, nor did he provide an outright denial of that possibility, in contrast to previous meetings – and he implied that the Fed could ease if inflation pulls back more than they expect.

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