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MNI Fed Review - May 2024: High (But Not Higher) For Longer

The May FOMC outcome leaned dovish, with markets relieved by three aspects in particular.

Central Bank ReviewAnalysisFOMC Calendar Market NewsHomepageFed - ReviewCommoditiesCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The May FOMC outcome leaned dovish, with markets relieved by three aspects in particular: the maintenance of the Committee’s bias toward the next move being a rate cut; Chair Powell describing a rate hike as “unlikely”; and a more aggressive reduction to balance sheet runoff than had been expected.
  • While the FOMC’s confidence in the progress of disinflation has faltered following recent CPI/PCE data disappointments, they continue to see policy as being restrictive and in a “good place”.
  • Though the bar to cuts has been set a little higher, the bar to hikes appears to remain about as high as ever.

FOR FULL ANALYSIS INCLUDING 30 SELL SIDE SUMMARIES:

FedReviewMay2024.pdf


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The May FOMC outcome leaned dovish, with markets relieved by three aspects in particular: the maintenance of the Committee’s bias toward the next move being a rate cut; Chair Powell describing a rate hike as “unlikely”; and a more aggressive reduction to balance sheet runoff than had been expected.
  • While the FOMC’s confidence in the progress of disinflation has faltered following recent CPI/PCE data disappointments, they continue to see policy as being restrictive and in a “good place”.
  • Though the bar to cuts has been set a little higher, the bar to hikes appears to remain about as high as ever.

FOR FULL ANALYSIS INCLUDING 30 SELL SIDE SUMMARIES:

FedReviewMay2024.pdf