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MNI Fed Review - Sept 2024: “Strong Move”, But “No Rush"

MNI (NEW YORK) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Surprises at the September FOMC were actually relatively limited outside of the decision itself, which went in favor of a 50bp cut to 4.75-5.00% instead of a 25bp cut – and even then, either outcome was priced at roughly 50/50 going into 2pm ET. 

  • If anything the limited surprises in the communications leaned marginally hawkish to us versus what might have been expected in the context of an outsized rate cut to start the easing cycle, from Powell’s caginess over the cadence of future cuts in the press conference, to some subtleties in the Dot Plot.
  • We think this interpretation is borne out by the market reaction, which went from very dovish on the semi-surprise cut size at the time of release, to reversing much of the initial move by the end of the press conference.

FOR FULL ANALYSIS INCLUDING PRESS CONFERENCE TRANSCRIPT:

FedReviewSep2024.pdf

 

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