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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Analysts expect to see a stronger U.S. labor market amid more inflation than they did three months ago and pushed back their views of when the economy will potentially slow to the fourth quarter, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey released Friday.
The Philly Fed’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters predicted growth to slow from 1.3% growth in 2023 to 1.0% in 2024 before picking up again to over 2%. The 38 forecasters surveyed also revised upward their growth expectations for Q3 and revised downward their Q4 estimates to flat.
The forecasters see stronger payroll employment growth in 2023 than they did three months ago, penciling in a monthly rate of 257,500 in 2023, up from 217,800 previously. The median estimate sees payrolls slowing to about 26,000 in Q4, before picking up to 37,000 in the first quarter next year with an annual average of 56,000 in 2024.
Near-term expectations for inflation were revised higher as well. The median forecasters sees Q4 core PCE at 2.9%, up from 2.5% previously.
Source: Philly Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.