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MNI: GERMANY DATA: Flash GDP (Q1 2019) Preview -.....>

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MNI: GERMANY DATA: Flash GDP (Q1 2019) Preview - 07:00 BST
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- Bbg Consensus: 0.4% q/q (sa), 0.7% y/y (wda); MNI Median: 0.4% q/q (sa), 0.7%
y/y (wda); Previous (Q4): 0.0% q/q (sa), 0.6% y/y (wda)
- Having narrowly escaped falling into a technical recession in H2 2018...
- ... the German economy looks to have rebounded strongly in Q1, with growth
potentially reaching around its trend rate
- However, this was likely driven largely by the surge in construction activity
over the quarter, spurred by favourable weather conditions...
- ... and would thus overstate the economy's underlying momentum, with the soft
patch unlikely to be over
- Indeed, some indicators point to the potential for a renewed contraction in Q2
- The significant drop in factory orders in Q1, for example, paints a weak
outlook for industrial production
- Hopes remain alive for a more sustainable rebound in H2, but global devts -
incl US trade policy, China's growth & Brexit - could thwart this

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