MNI Gilt Week Ahead - January 18, 2021

• The gilt market in the week ahead is likely to be more influenced by external events than domestic drivers. The ECB is set to meet this week (although not much is expected after the previous meeting where stimulus was extended); global Covid-19 developments and vaccine deployment and availability will continue to dictate sentiment.
• Domestically we will receive inflation data on Wednesday and retail sales / public finance / PMI data on Friday. Retail sales and PMI data will likely be the highlights. Despite its volatile nature, retail sales will give us the best indication of the level of consumer activity in the month of December, when shops were open ahead of Christmas across the majority of the UK (and were open after Christmas outside of London, the East and South East. PMI data will give us the first real indication of activity during the January lockdown and how firms are perceiving the future now that there is a bit more certainty on the vaccine deployment timeline and we have a Brexit deal in place. We will also receive CBI industrial trends data on Thursday and GfK consumer confidence data in the early hours of Friday.
• In terms of BoE speakers this week there are no real top tier speeches. Governor Bailey is in conversation with Professor Lord Stern on Monday, Haldane is in conversation with Alan Rusbridger tomorrow. Wednesday will see Bailey and Brazier host a Citizens' Panel Open Forum.

GiltWeekAhead18012021.pdf