MNI Gilt Week Ahead - January 5, 2021

• The focus for the UK will be on the announcement last night from Prime Minister Boris Johnson that England would enter a national lockdown until at least the middle of February. The prime minister's hope is that the pressure on the NHS will have receded somewhat by then and that all over 70-year-olds, all of the clinically vulnerable and all NHS and care home workers will have received the first dose of a vaccination by this point. If the timeframe for either the vaccination schedule or the pressure on the NHS lasts longer than expected, the lockdown will likely last longer. Unlike the November lockdown, both primary schools and secondary schools will be closed. The length of the lockdown and the fact that all primary schools will close as well as secondary schools makes the announcement more stringent than many had expected at this point (although even if a shorter lockdown had been announced, it would have been widely expected to have been extended anyway). Similar lockdowns have been announced across the other UK nations (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland).
• The new lockdown will likely make this week's upcoming data fairly irrelevant again. The only MPC member scheduled to make an appearance will be Governor Bailey as he testifies along with FPC members ahead of the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday. Any comments he makes on the growth outlook given the new lockdown measures will be watched closely.

GiltWeekAhead05012021.pdf