MNI Gilt Week Ahead - November 30, 2020

• We are braced for another week of potential headline-triggered volatility as Brexit talks drag on, with many hoping for this to be the final week (although that has been said before…) The weekend press was largely optimistic on the progress made towards fisheries, but other issues seem to be a bit further apart. However, it is a positive development that Barnier has travelled to London to continue negotiations (after earlier reports that he might cancel his trip if not enough progress had been made to warrant it). The Times also reported that the EU negotiating team is being bolstered with the addition of Stephanie Riso, one of the negotiators on the deal with Theresa May and who is close to Ursula von der Leyen. The Times reports that Riso is "is seen as someone who can help to find a solution." Elsewhere on the political front, the Commons will debate and vote on the new Covid-19 tiering system, which Prime Minister Johnson has already had to tell potential rebel MPs would see some areas downgraded before Christmas.
• We will hear from five MPC members this week. We think that the most noteworthy speech could come from Michael Saunders on Friday as he discusses what options there are available for monetary policy if more stimulus is needed. Governor Bailey is due to make a panel appearance on Tuesday to discuss how policy makers can use history. Tenreyro speaks twice – first on Monday in a webinar on the challenges of setting monetary policy and then again at the Reuters Investment Summit on Friday. She has been fairly active in terms of public engagements recently so there is unlikely to be much of a surprise from her comments. Haskel speaks at the University of Bristol on Wednesday while Chief Economist Haldane's speech on Monday is just an introduction to the History and Policy Making Conference.
• This week will see the DMO hold consultation meetings with GEMMs and investors before publishing its finalised auction calendar on Friday at 7:30GMT. We have set out our expectations for which gilts will be on offer in detail in UK Issuance Outlook and Spending Review Recap and our expected calendar is also available on page 4 of this document. This week also sees four gilt auctions for the first time since early October.
• The economic data calendar is pretty light this week with the final manufacturing PMI print likely to be the highlight.

GiltWeekAhead30112020.pdf