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MNI Gilt Week Ahead - Reeves speech in focus

We look ahead to Chancellor Reeves' speech as well as this week's gilt auctions and potential tender.
HomepageCEEMEAGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - UKUKMarketsStory
  • External events are expected to dominate the economic data calendar this week (with the Fed and ECB meetings the highlights). However, fiscal matters remain in the spotlight this week with Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves due to deliver a speech on Wednesday regarding how the government intends to boost economic growth, with a focus on planning reforms to boost house construction. There is the potential for Reeves to announce the construction of a third runway at Heathrow airport, mooted as a long-term boost for the UK economy by proponents but opposed by many local MPs and environmentalists. Markets remain sensitive to anything fiscal at present. Note that the OBR will deliver the first round of its updated forecast to the Treasury on Tuesday next week (4 February).
  • This week will see four members of the FPC (including Governor Bailey) testify ahead of the Treasury Select Committee on the November Financial Stability Report. Note that this is during the quiet period for monetary policy, so Governor Bailey’s comments will need to be constrained to financial stability matters.
  • Note that this week sees the maturity of the former 3.5 year 0.25% Jan-35 gilt. Of the GBP36.5bln nominal outstanding, GBP29.5bln is held by the market, GBP6.0bln by the BOE APF and GBP1.0bln by the government.
  • The full document also includes auction previews and our thoughts on the upcoming tender.

For the full document see: GiltWeekAhead20250127.pdf

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  • External events are expected to dominate the economic data calendar this week (with the Fed and ECB meetings the highlights). However, fiscal matters remain in the spotlight this week with Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves due to deliver a speech on Wednesday regarding how the government intends to boost economic growth, with a focus on planning reforms to boost house construction. There is the potential for Reeves to announce the construction of a third runway at Heathrow airport, mooted as a long-term boost for the UK economy by proponents but opposed by many local MPs and environmentalists. Markets remain sensitive to anything fiscal at present. Note that the OBR will deliver the first round of its updated forecast to the Treasury on Tuesday next week (4 February).
  • This week will see four members of the FPC (including Governor Bailey) testify ahead of the Treasury Select Committee on the November Financial Stability Report. Note that this is during the quiet period for monetary policy, so Governor Bailey’s comments will need to be constrained to financial stability matters.
  • Note that this week sees the maturity of the former 3.5 year 0.25% Jan-35 gilt. Of the GBP36.5bln nominal outstanding, GBP29.5bln is held by the market, GBP6.0bln by the BOE APF and GBP1.0bln by the government.
  • The full document also includes auction previews and our thoughts on the upcoming tender.

For the full document see: GiltWeekAhead20250127.pdf