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MNI Global Macro Outlook-Dec 2023: What Could Go Wrong?

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MNI's December 2023 Global Macro Outlook meeting surveyed the consensus outlook for the year ahead - PDF available here

  • Market pricing overwhelmingly expects a “soft landing” in 2024; analysts agree but less so
  • Global growth is seen below potential in 2024, with the US and Eurozone at stall speed
  • Inflation is set to remain above 2% in most developed countries by well down and closed to target by 2025
  • Modest fiscal drag is seen on 2024 growth vs 2023; historically low unemployment rates are seen ticking higher
  • Manufacturing appears to be bottoming out, but services will be the key to 2024 growth and inflation outcomes
  • Amid large-scale central bank rate cuts in 2024, consensus is for US dollar weakness

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