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MNI Global Macro Outlook-Feb 2024: ​Surprisingly Strong Start

GLOBAL

MNI's February 2024 Global Macro Outlook meeting surveyed the stronger-than-expected economic start to the year. Our chart pack (emailed to clients, in PDF here) looks at developments from multiple angles.

  • The soft/no landing narrative is in full swing as growth prospects have improved despite significant central bank tightening
  • The upturn in global growth prospects has come surprisingly early and been surprisingly broad-based.
  • The global labour market is not loosening as quickly as expected, with implications for both activity and price pressures
  • Services disinflation progress has stalled
  • Core goods price deflation appears to be bottoming out (not helped by Red Sea shipping blockage)
  • Financial conditions have loosened since the beginning of December and risk is “on”
  • Bottom line: expectations that ECB / Fed etc would cut as soon as Q1 have been unfounded and have gotten priced out
  • To watch in month ahead: hiking (?) Asia-Pac central banks, Euro inflation, US data and Fed messaging

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