MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Another weak data day in terms of volume, coming right

before an anticipated flood of releases on Thursday.

     Both Germany and France release their consumer sentiment indicators at

0700GMT 0745GMT respectively. In Germany, a miniscule reduction has been

pencilled in by analysts lowering the index from a prior figure of 10.8 to 10.7.

     France's previous index figure was at 100 but given its Monday GDP figures

where the quarter on quarter change was up by 1 pp from its prior and an

unchanged y/y figure, one would anticipate French consumers being relatively

positive.

     Spain and Italy are next on the European calendar with Spain's Retail Sales

y/y wda figures at 0800GMT. The prior figure was at 2.2%. Next is Italy's

Industrial Orders at 0900GMT with prior m/m and y/y non-seasonally adjusted

figures at 6.5% and 6.9% growth respectively.

     The BOE Agents' Business Survey comes at 0930GMT which is followed by the

CBI's Distributive Trades figure at 1100GMT. The expected sales balance is up to

21 units from a previous expected sales balance of 13. However, the prior

reported sales balance was at 8 compared to its expectation of 13 so the

forecast of 21 units may not be fully in tune with the actual release itself.

     The US gets underway at 1200GMT with the MBA Weekly Applications Index. The

prior figure for MBA Mortgage Applications showed a contraction in applications

of -1.1%.

     Released at 1330GMT are the Advanced Goods Trade data. Previous advance

wholesale inventories growth was previously at 0.8% whereas advance retail

inventories growth was slightly lower at 0.7%. The prior advance goods trade gap

was at $76.5 billion.

     At the same time, the third estimate of fourth quarter GDP will be

released. Analysts expected the third reading of GDP for the fourth quarter to

make little news, with the headline figure revised up modestly to +2.7% and the

chain price index unrevised at +2.3%. A smaller inventory drag is seen as the

key factor. Analysts expect growth to slow further in the first quarter due to a

smaller contribution from PCE, but to pick up again in the second quarter-in

line recent seasonal patterns.

     Canada are next with their payroll employment figures as well as 1330GMT.

Average weekly earnings y/y previously grew at 2.3% and payroll employment was

at 31.6 units prior.

     Moving to the latter stages of the afternoon, 1500GMT sees the Pending Home

Sales index in the US, with a prior figure of 104.6.

     Agriculture prices is the last piece of data the US will release for

Tuesday at 2000GMT with previous prices declining 6.2%.

     If you're up still and fancy some data, New Zealand at 2245GMT release

their Monthly Building Approvals with prior m/m building consents of 0.2%.

     The Gfk monthly Consumer Confidence tells a story of pessimistic consumers

expected to remain so by analysts. From a previous figure of -10, the figure is

expected to move down a touch to -9. This is still very much so in the negative

territory and goes some way in explaining the weak demand in the UK despite

rising wages.

     Following up in Japan, preliminary retail sales y/y (0050GMT) has analysts

pencilling in a slight reduction in growth from a prior figure of 1.5% to 1.4%.

     The double release at 0130GMT of job vacancies and the RBA Private Sector

Credit sees out the calendar with RBA Private Sector Credit m/m expected to

remain unchanged at 0.3%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com