MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - In anticipation of markets closing for Good Friday, Thursday

takes the brunt of the week's data releases. 

     The UK dominates the morning with drabs of Germany and Switzerland in

between

     Starting early at 0600GMT, the UK releases include the Nationwide House

Price Index. The prior y/y growth figure for February was at 2.2%.   

     Germany's ILO Employment Index is also released at 0600GMT with a prior

index figure of 58. 

     German state inflation data will be released through the morning, starting

with Saxony at 0700GMT.

     Shortly after this at 0700GMT, the KOF Economic Barometer in Switzerland

will be released after a prior of 108.

     Germany's GLO Labour Market Statistics comes out at 0755GMT. Analysts are

expecting a slight reduction in the unemployment rate from 5.4% to 5.3% as well

as a reduction in the unemployment change m/m in units from -22 to -12.5. 

     Looking at the BOE release of M4 and Lending to Individuals, it is clear

that analysts have pencilled in a reduction in mortgage approvals off the back

of January's high of 67478 to 66000. Net lending on dwellings however is

expected to increase slightly from stg3.4 billion to stg3.5 billion. Analysts

are also anticipating no change in net consumer credit with median estimates at

stg1.4 billion. 

     The UK GDP Third estimate is not expected by analysts to create any

surprises with y/y GDP expected to be 1.4%, down from 1.8% previously and q/q

growth down to 0.4% from 0.5%. The Index of Services m/m is expected to increase

from 0% previously to 0.15% whilst the 3m/3m figure is expected to move down

slightly from 0.6% to 0.55%. 

     Germany's preliminary CPI is forecasted by analysts to show a slight

increase in the HICP y/y to 1.6% from 1.2% previously. Prior m/m HICP was at

0.5%. 

     Canada's double release at 1230GMT of GDP by Industry and Industrial

Product and Raw Material Price Index. GDP by Industry is not expected to change

by analyst with a pencilling in of m/m growth at 0.1%. Previous Industrial

produce prices y/y were at 2% whereas Raw material prices y/y were at 7.7%. 

     The US gets underway at the same time with its Initial Jobless Claims and

Personal Income and Consumption.

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 4,000 to 225,000

in the March 24 week after a 3,000 increase in the previous week to keep claims

in their recent narrow range. The four-week moving average would rise by 3,750

in the coming week, as the decades-low 210,000 level in the February 24 week

drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are

no revisions. 

     Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in February, as payrolls posted

a 313,000 surge, hourly earnings rose by 0.1%, but average weekly hours rose to

34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by 0.2% after a 0.2% January

increase, with durables spending down due to a decline in auto spending. Total

retail sales fell by 0.1% in the month and were up only 0.2% excluding a 0.9%

drop in motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building

materials and food services were up 0.1%, indicating modest underlying growth. 

     The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in February

following a 0.3% gain in January, so the year/year rate would tick up to 1.6%

after holding at 1.5% in recent months, but rounding may have more to do with

the increase than an actual acceleration. 

     The Milwaukee Manufacturing ISM Index is shortly after this at 1300GMT with

a previous index figure of 75.24. 

     The MNI Chicago PMI (1342GMT)is expected to rebound to a reading of 63.3 in

March after dipping to a still-strong reading of 61.9 in February. Other

regional data already released were mixed. The Empire State reading was up, the

Philadelphia Fed reading down, and the Kansas City Fed reading unchanged. All

indicate solid growth. 

     The Final Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised at a reading

of 102.0 in March, still up from 99.7 in February

     Core central Tokyo CPI y/y (2330GMT) is expected by analysts to remain

unchanged from its previous figure of 0.9%. This is followed shortly afterwards

(2350GMT) with the Industrial Production figures which m/m has analysts

expecting a dramatic increase from a prior contraction of 6.8% to growth of

5.1%. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com