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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - Wednesday starts off strong with the Euro Area fuelling the
schedule. It does however run out later on in the day with the US trying its
best to keep the momentum going later in the day.
     Starting at 0600GMT, Germany will release their final HICP data.
Previously, y/y growth was at 1.4%.
     Italy are next with industrial orders at 0800GMT. Previously, y/y growth
was 3.4% and m/m growth was weak at -0.6%.
     It is an uneventful rest of the week for the UK but there is still one
event which may be worth mentioning. The BOE Agents' Business Survey will be
released at 0830GMT. In the last MPC meeting, Governor Carney pointed to their
use of households and business surveys in making interest rate decisions and as
a result business optimism may be worth considering in this latest piece.
     Back to Italy with their final HICP data at 0900GMT. Previous y/y growth
stood at 0.6%.
     Now, all the HICP data from the Euro member countries has been reported,
the Euro Area final HICP inflation rate is also at 0900GMT. Prior y/y inflation
of 1.2% is not expected to change by MNI analyst forecasts.
     Congested Data at 1230GMT
     Moving to the afternoon and ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Frankfurt
at 1200GMT. This is followed up by Executive Board member Benoit Coeure at
1230GMT.
     Also at 1230GMT and kicking off the day for the US, Atlanta Federal Reserve
Bank President Raphael Bostic speaking in Georgia.
     The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts (1230GMT) is expected to
hold roughly steady at a 1.318 million annual rate in April after a strong March
gain, as the weather was less favourable than normal in some parts of the
country. The NAHB index slipped to 69 in April from 70 in March, a fourth
straight decline, so there is some downside risk. Still, as prices rise and
inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to boost
output. The pace of building permits is expected to slow to a 1.350 million pace
from the revised 1.379 million rate in March.
     The final of the 1230GMT data is Canada's monthly survey of manufacturing.
Manufacturing sales previously grew at 1.9% but are anticipated by analysts to
decline to 1.2%.
     Industrial production (1315GMT) is expected to rise 0.6% in April following
solid gains in the previous two months. Factory payrolls rose by 24,000 in April
and the factory workweek rose to 41.1 hours. However, the ISM production index
fell to 57.2 in the current month from 61.0 in the previous month. Utilities
production is expected to continue its upward trend in the month after a rebound
in the previous month, as weather was a bit cooler than normal, supporting heat
use at a time when most of the country has normally shut it off. Mining
production is forecast to rise further after gains in February and March.
Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 78.4% from 78.0% in March.
     The late afternoon and evening is speeches orientated. Starting at 1430GMT,
ECB Executive Board member and MNI connect speaker on Monday, Peter Praet,
speaking in Frankfurt.
     Moving to 1600GMT, BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri speakS at the CFA
Society Ottawa, Canada.
     Late in the evening at 2230GMT is St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President
James Bullard speaking in St. Louis, Missouri.
     Closing out the calendar as usual is Japan and Australia. At 2350GMT is
machinery orders in Japan which are expected to show a strong m/m decline in
growth. Previously, machinery orders grew at 2.1% m/m, however, analyst have
pencilled in a decline of 2%. The Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations
survey and monthly labour force survey is next and concludes the calendar at
0100GMT and 0130GMT respectively. Previous inflation expectation trim mean was
at 3.6%. The unemployment rate in Australia is expected by analysts to remain
fixed at 5.5%, but employed persons m/m growth is expected to see sharp growth
after a prior 4.9 unit value expected to move up to 20.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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