MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday throws up a full and eventful calendar for European

markets to get to grip with, as the ECB's latest policy decision comes hard on

the heels of the Fed's overnight rate hike.

     European data gets the calendar underway, with the release of the German

final May inflation data at 0600GMT and the release of teh same French data at

0645GMT.

     The highlight of the UK day comes at 0830GMT with the publication of the

May retail sales data.

     After a sturdy 1.6% m/m rebound in April, the UK's May retail sales data

print, due out Thursday, will reveal if the sector managed to extend this form

and build momentum. MNI median expectations, taken from a poll of analysts, look

for a 0.5% m/m rise in total sales volumes and a 0.4% m/m rise in ex-fuel

volumes.

     The ECB's latest policy decision is expected at 1145GMT, with President

Mario Draghi's press conference set for 1230GMT.

     The ECB is expected to keep policy unchanged and make no announcement - yet

- as to when the asset purchase programme is set to end. However, the debate

over timing is expected to pick up pace in Riga, but to what degree this will be

reflected in Draghi's comments is unclear.

     The US calendar kicks off at 1230GMT, with the release of the latest

jobless claims and the May retail sales.

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 2,000 to 224,000

in the June 9 week after falling by only 1,000 to 222,000 in the previous week,

keeping the level in its tight range. The four-week moving average would rise by

250 in the coming week as the 223,000 level in the May 12 week drops out of the

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.

     Retail sales are forecast to increse 0.4% in May after a somewhat tamer

reading in April. Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales roughly

unchanged in May, while AAA reported that gasoline prices rose sharply in

mid-May from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to grow 0.5% excluding

motor vehicles after a 0.3% gain in April. Annual revisions will be included

with the data.

     Canadian new house prices will be published at the same time.

     Back in the US, at 1400GMT, the US business inventories data will be

released. Inventories are expected to increase 0.3% in April. Factory

inventories were already reported as up 0.3% in the month, while wholesale

inventories rose 0.1%. The advance report showed a 0.6% gain for retail

inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks for a 0.3% increase for

business inventories, so the median forecast suggests analysts see no revisions

to retail inventories. As for sales, factory shipments were flat, wholesale

sales jumped 0.8% and the advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.4%

gain, suggesting a 0.4% rise for business sales, assuming no revision to the

retail trade sales increase. Annual revisions to the factory, wholesale, and

retail data, all released in late-May, will be included in this month's release.

     The latest Natural Gas Stocks data will be published at 1430GMT.

     Late US data sees the publication of the Fed Weekly M2 Money Supply Data at

2030GMT.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com