MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - As many would have been out late last night watching the

World Cup semi-final, a calming calendar is exactly what the doctor ordered.

     The calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of Germany's final

CPI data. The previous HICP was 2.1% y/y. France's HICP data is set for release

at 0645GMT.

     The BOE Quarterly Credit conditions is at 0830GMT. The prior corporate

sector lending for the next three months stood at a 1.8 index readings, whereas

the small businesses secured and unsecured lending was 11.6 and 6.7

respectively.

     Euro Area Industrial Production is at 0900GMT. Previously, industrial

production y/y came in at 1.7%.

     Moving to the States, CPI (1230GMT) is expected to rise 0.2% for a third

straight month in June. The year/year rates should stabilize after moving higher

in May. AAA reported another modest gain in mid-month prices from May, which

could support a further increase in CPI gasoline prices, while food prices are

seen adding modestly. The core CPI is forecast to also rise 0.2% following an

as-expected 0.2% increase in May, with the relatively large housing categories

holding steady.

     The level of initial jobless claims (1230GMT) is expected to fall by 5,000

to 226,000 in the July 7 holiday week after rising by 3,000 to 231,000 in the

previous week, keeping the level in its tight range. The four-week moving

average would still rise by 1,250 in the coming week as the 221,000 level in the

June 9 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct

and there are no revisions.

     Canada also have data at 1230GMT with the New Housing Price Index.

Previously, the new housing price index grew 1.6% y/y.

     Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks in

Victor, Idaho at 1615GMT.

     The US Treasury (1800GMT) is expected to post a larger budget deficit for

June than the $90.2 billion gap in June 2017. July 1 fell on a weekend in both

years, so outlays were shifted into June. The impact of the tax cuts should

continue to be seen in the data in the form of lower tax receipts and wider

budget gaps.

     Speaking at 0000GMT, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel

Kashkari addresses the Worthington International Festival Immigration Panel

Discussion.

     At some point on Friday, China was also release their trade balance data. A

prior trade balance of USD24.92 bn is expected to expand to USD26.0 bn.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com