MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday throws up a bus morning of data releases, which

gets underway early with a double release from Germany and the UK at 0600GMT. In

Germany, the GFK consumer climate index is published, which is expected to drop

very slightly in September to 10.4 from a prior of 10.5.

     In the UK is the August Nationwide House price index will cross the wires.

In July, the y/y growth rate was 2.0%.

     Up next is another double release at 0800GMT with the ECB's money supply

data for August and the ISTAT Italian confidence indicator for September. The

prior M3 y/y growth in July of 4% is expected to moderate to 3.8%. The ISAT

business and consumer confidence index has readings in August of 103.8 and 115.2

respectively.

     The Euro Area is next with their confidence indicator for September at

0900GMT. The economic sentiment indicator had previously scored 111.6 in August

and is expected to drop a touch to 111.3.

     Germany's flash HICP data for September is at 1200GMT. The prior y/y growth

rate was 1.9%.

     The main US data comes via a triple release at 1230GMT with the level of

initial jobless claims, durable goods and the second quarter GDP final estimate.

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 21,000 to a

222,000 level in the September 22 week after a decrease to 201,000 in the

previous week to another 49-year low. The impact of Hurricane Florence will

begin to be seen in this week's data. The four-week moving average would rise by

2,250 in the coming week as the 213,000 level in the August 25 week rolls out of

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no

revisions.

     Durable goods are expected to rise by 2.0% in August after an unrevised

1.7% decline in July. Boeing reported 99 orders in August, up sharply from 30

orders in July. Durable goods orders excluding transportation orders are

expected to rise by 0.5% in August.

     Second quarter GDP is expected to be unrevised at a 4.2% pace, while the

chain price index is forecast to be revised unrevised at a 3.0% pace. Analysts

have turned their attention to third quarter growth, which is expected to be

softer than the second quarter pace, followed by a stronger fourth quarter pace

on post-hurricane rebuilding.

     Payroll employment for Canada in July is also expected at 1230GMT.

     ECB President Mario Draghi is speaking in Frankfurt, Germany from 1315GMT.

Next up on the speeches at 1700GMT is ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet

speaking in London.

     A day after the Fed's interest rate decision, Dallas Fed President Rob

Kaplan is speaking in Charlotte, North Carolina at 1800GMT.

     At 2030GMT is Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell speaks in Rhode Island

on the US economy.

     In Canada at 2145GMT is BOC Governor Stephen Poloz speaking in Commerce,

Moncton.

     Into the late evening and at 2301GMT is the UK's Gfk monthly consumer

confidence for September. After August's reading of -7, the MNI median points to

a decline to -8 in September.

     Japan takes over next with their CPI data at 2330GMT and their industrial

production and preliminary retail sales data at 2350GMT. CPI is for September

and the y/y rate seen in August of 0.9% is not expected to change. Industrial

production and preliminary retail sales is for August with the m/m industrial

production expected to rise from -0.2% to 1.5% and retail sales to also rise

from 1.5% y/y to 2.1% y/y.

     Finishing up in Australia at 0130GMT is the RBA private sector credit data

for August. The m/m prior reading was 0.4%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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