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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - Friday sees more GDP and inflation data on the calendar on
the schedule across Europe.
     The calendar starts at 0600GMT, when the August ILO Employment data in
Germany crosses the wire. The July reading was 47,000. BBK Board member Claudia
Buch speaks in Frankfurt at 0645GMT.
     At 0645GMT French August consumer spending, August PPI and the September
flash HICP data are all due for release. The previous consumer spending y/y was
0.2%. The PPI y/y was previously 4.0%. The flash HICP for September is after a
prior reading of 2.6% y/y for August.
     Spain's GDP reading for Q2 is at 0700GMT. The prior q/q flash reading of
0.6% for Q2 is not expected to change. Also at the same time is the flash HICP
reading for September. The prior August rate was 2.2%.
     Also at 0700GMT is the Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer. The previous
reading in August was 100.3.
     Moving to Germany at 0755GMT, the unemployment rate will be released. The
rate in September is expected to be unchanged from August's reading of 5.2%.
     Moving to the UK, at 0830GMT, the second estimate of Q2 GDP and the Q2
current account data are expected. The current account is deficit is expected to
widen to stg18.9 bn after a previous quarter deficit of stg17.7 bn. The Q2 GDP
reading in the first estimate was 0.4% q/q and 1.3% y/y. This is not expected to
change, however the reading is well above the Q1 q/q growth rate of 0.2%.
     Next up is the September flash HICP readings in Italy at 0900GMT. The
previous rate was 1.6%.At the same as Italy is the flash HICP readings for
September in the Euro Area. The rate is expected to remain just above the ECB's
target at 2.0% and unchanged from August's rate.
     Canada at 1230GMT have their GDP data for July and industrial product and
raw material prices for August. The m/m growth rate in GDP is expected to tick
up to 0.1% from a June prior which was flat. Industrial product prices
previously grew by 6.6% y/y, whilst raw material prices grew by 3.6% y/y
previously.
     Moving to the States, also at 1230GMT, is their Personal income data which
is expected to rise by 0.4% in August, as payrolls rose by 201,000 and hourly
earnings rose by 0.4%, while average weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours. Current
dollar PCE is forecast to rise by 0.4% after a 0.4% July gain that could see an
upward revision based on the retail sales data. Total retail sales rose by only
0.1% in the month after an upward revised 0.7% July gain. Sales were up 0.3% in
August excluding a 0.8% decline in motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding
autos, gas, building materials and food services were up only 0.1% after an
upward revised 0.8% July gain. The core PCE price index is expected to post a
0.2% increase in June, so the y/y rate could tick up to 2.1%.
     ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaks at 1235GMT in Frankfurt. At
1240GMT, ECB Governing Council member Philip Lane speaks in London.
     The MNI Chicago PMI is at 1345GMT and is expected to decline further to a
reading of 62.0 in September after dipping slightly to 63.6 in August. Other
regional data already released have suggested an improved growth pace, with the
Empire State reading falling back modestly, but the Philadelphia Fed rebounding
solidly.
     The Michigan Sentiment index follows the MNI Chicago PMI at 1400GMT and is
expected to be unrevised at 100.8 reading in September, still well above the
96.2 reading in August.
     New York Federal Reserve Bank president John Williams speaks in New York at
2045GMT.
     China are next on Sunday morning at 0100GMT, when the CFLP manufacturing
PMI for September is released. The August reading was 51.3. Forty-five minutes
later is the Caixin manufacturing PMI where the August reading was 50.6. Later
on in the day at 1200GMT is the CFLP non-manufacturing PMI. The August reading
was 54.2.
     Australia is next at 2230GMT with their AI Group manufacturing index for
August. July's prior was 56.7.
     Into the late hours of Sunday evening and at 2350GMT is the Tankan in Japan
for Q2.
     Ending the calendar at 0000GMT is the CoreLogic home value index for
September in Australia. The previous m/m reading was -0.3%.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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