MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday throws up two data releases from the Euro Area and

one from the US. The first release is the February flash estimate of Euro Area

composite PMI at 0900GMT, the ECB interest rate decision at 1245GMT and the US

weekly jobless claims data at 1330GMT.

     The Euro Area composite PMI reading was 51.1 in January. The MNI median

points to a slight rise in the index to 51.4 but the picture of low global

demand and uncertainty appears to be in the works again for February.

     The weakness in economic data across Europe combined with the fall in

global demand is undoubtedly anticipated to feed into the ECB's interest rate

decision. Consequently, the MNI median looks for no change in the deposit rate

at -0.40.

     ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference, due at 1330GMT follows the

interest rate announcement that comes at 1245GMT. The ECB are expected to keep

policy unchanged, with most focus on the statement and whether there is any

revision to the balance of risks.

     The level of U.S. initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 5,000 to

208,000 in the January 19 week after a decline of 3,000 to a 208,000 level in

the previous week, a continuation of the volatility normally seen at the start

of the year. The impact of the government shutdown may be seen in coming weeks

as a portion of the furloughed government workers file for benefits. The level

of filings by Federal workers, which lags by a week, more than doubled to 10,454

in the January 5 week and is likely to move even higher. The four-week moving

average would decline further in the coming week as the 221,000 level in the

December 22 week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is

correct and there are no revisions.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com