MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Friday starts busy in terms of European data releases. At

0700GMT the German statistics office publishes retail sales figures. France

follows with the release of the flash CPI at 0745GMT and at 0800 data on final

GDP is published for Spain. At 0855GMT German GLO Labour Market Statistics will

be released. In the UK the release of GDP (2nd Est.) and the current account

balance at 0930GMT are the highlights of the day. In the US the publication of

the MNI Chicago Report at 1442GMT as well as data on new home sales at 1400GMT

will be closely watched.

     Retail Sales in Germany increased by 3.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y in January after

a sharp fall in December. However, the MNI median expects the m/m retail sales

to decline again by -0.6% in February.

     France's HCPI is expected to increase by 1.05% m/m and 1.5% y/y in March.

February's reading was 0.1% m/m and 1.6% y/y.

     The final GDP q/q for Q4 in Spain is anticipated to increase by 0.7%

whereas the y/y figure is expected to increase by 2.4%. These numbers are in

accordance with the flash estimates for Q4 GDP. GDP y/y is decreasing since Q4

2017 whereas the q/q values remains at a growth rate of 0.6% since Q1 2018.

     The GLO unemployment rate in February was 5% in Germany and the m/m

unemployment change amounted to -21. For March the MNI median expects the

employment rate to rise at 4.9% and the month-on-month change to be -10.

     UK's GDP (2nd Est) q/q is expected to grow by 0.2% and y/y by 1.3%. These

figures are in line with the preliminary values. Both q/q and y/y GDP growth

rates in the UK are declining in magnitude since Q1 2018. The current account

balance is anticipated to be GBP -22.9 BN compared to GBP -26.5 BN in Q3 2018.

     The MNI Chicago PMI was 64.7 in February and is expected to amount to 61 in

March. The pace of new home sales in the US is expected to partially rebound to

a 616,000 annual rate in February after pulling back in January. The pace of

sales remains below their year ago level.

     Friday remains quiet regarding speeches. The highlights are ECB's Benoit

Coeure speaking in Paris at 0945GMT and NY Fed's John Williams who participates

in a discussion in St. Thomas, USVI. Dallas Fed's Rob Kaplan speech in New York

at 1430GMT is also worth noting. 

--MNI London Bureau; +44 0203 865 3814; email: irene.prihoda@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com