MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Wednesday is a busy day for the UK. At 09300BST, the ONS

publishes data on inflation, public sector finances and producer price inflation

while the release of data on retail sales in Canada at 1330BST is the highlight

across the pond.

     Rising inflation in the UK?

     UK CPI is expected to increase by 0.7% m/m in April. Monthly inflation

decelerated in March after a sharp increase of 1.3pp in February. Annual

inflation is projected to rise by 2.2%, which would shift the series back to the

10-year average (2.2%), after holding steady at 1.9% for two months. Annual core

inflation is anticipated to increase slightly by 0.1pp after remaining at 1.8%

in March and February.

     Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to rise significantly to GBP 5.2bn

in April after a reading of GBP 0.8bn. Public Sector Net Cash Requirement

amounted to GBP 8.9bn while Central Govt Net Cash Requirement registered at GBP

22.5bn.

     UK's output producer price inflation is expected to decelerate from 2.4%

y/y in March to 2.3% y/y in April while PPI input is projected to grow 4.5% y/y

after a reading of 3.7% y/y in the previous month. Monthly PPI output held

steady for two months while PPI input declined in March after a strong reading

in February.

     Strong Retail Sales in CA Expected

     Monthly Canadian retail sales grew by 0.8% in February while sales

excluding autos, parts dealers, and gas stations rose by 0.6%. Both series are

expected to accelerate in March and grow by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.

     Highlights in terms of speeches and events in the US are St. Louis Fed's

Bullard, NY Fed's Williams, Atlanta Fed's Bostic as well as the release of the

FOMC meeting minutes with the following press conference. In Europe ECB

President Mario Draghi and Chief Economist Peter Praet will be closely watched.

Praet steps down on May 31.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com