Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Monday is all about the publications of the flash PMIs. The European releases start with France at 0815GMT, followed by Germany at 0830GMT, the EZ at 0900GMT and the UK at 0930GMT. The US flash PMI will be published at 1445GMT.
Flash Manufacturing PMIs forecast to ease
All flash manufacturing PMIs are expected to decline in November amid the second wave of Covid-19. However, all indicators are seen above the 50-mark, signalling expansion. The renewed lockdown measures introduced in Europe are mainly affecting the service sector rather than the industrial sector. As a result, the divergence between the service and manufacturing sector continues to grow.
France's manufacturing PMI is projected to slip 1.2 points to 50.1 which suggests stagnation of business activity. The German index is expected to dip to 56.5 in November, down from 58.2, indicating that the German industrial sector continues to outperform its European peers. The EZ PMI is seen lower at 53.1, down from 54.8 recorded in October, while the UK's manufacturing PMI is anticipated to drop to 50.5, down 3.2 points. The US's flash manufacturing PMI is likely to ease by 0.4 points to 53.0 according to market analysts.
Europe's flash services PMIs seen below 50 in November
All flash services PMIs are expected to decline in November as the renewed strict containment measures particularly hit the service sector. The European indices are forecast to register in contraction territory, while the US's services PMI is projected to remain above the 50-mark.
Markets expect the French index to decrease 8.5 points to 38.0 in November which would be the lowest level since May. Meanwhile, the German services PMI is seen at 46.3, down from 49.5 registered in October. The overall EZ index is forecast to tick down 4.4 points to a six-month low of 42.5. The second lockdown in the UK is likely to shift the services PMI down to 42.5 in November, marking the first sub-50 reading since June.
The flash US services PMI is projected to remain in expansion territory in November with markets pencilling in a downtick to 55.5 from October's level of 56.9.
The events calendar gets the week off to a busy start. The main speakers to look out for include BOE's Andy Haldane and Andrew Bailey, ECB's Isabel Schnabel and Elizabeth McCaul as well as Fed's Mary Daly, Chicago Fed's Charles Evans and BOC's Gravelle.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.