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The ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday is the highlight of the day in terms of European events. In the US, the release of the weekly jobless claims will be closely watched at 1330GMT, followed by the job openings and labor turnover survey at 1500GMT.
ECB seen on hold
The ECB is set to keep the main policy settings unchanged, with main rates and PEPP envelopes maintained. Moreover, the ECB could indicate willingness to use its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme to contain a global rise in bond yields but may stop short of announcing an immediate increase in the pace and volume and purchases.
The latest quarterly ECB staff projections will be published, which will likely show higher inflation in 2021, although little change further out. Neither movement is significant enough to warrant a policy response, and instead emphasis will be placed on the ECB's continued faith in its baseline scenario and the importance of making continued progress on the vaccination front after a disappointing start to the process in eurozone countries.
US jobless claims seen lower
U.S. jobless claims filed through March 6 are set to have dropped to 725,000 from 745,000 through February 27, according to the Bloomberg consensus. Continuing claims filed through February 27 are expected to fall to 4.18 million from 4.3 million through February 20.
The labor market continues to improve, exemplified in part by February's blockbuster employment report from the BLS. Sil, analysts say initial claims could increase in the coming weeks as workers impacted by severe winter storms in the South apply for government aid.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
JOLTS Job openings expected to slow
The number of job openings remained broadly unchanged at 6,600,000 and 4.5% in December. While job openings rose in professional and business services, they fell in state and local government, arts, entertainment and recreation as well as in non-durable goods manufacturing. Markets are looking for a small uptick of job openings to 6,646,000 in January. Meanwhile, hires declined to 5,500,000 and the hires rate dropped to 3.9%. The sector accommodation and food services saw the largest decline in hires in December, while they increased in retail trade. Survey evidence points to an easing of job creation with the IHS services PMI noting only a marginal increase in employment.
Besides the press conference following the ECB's interest rate decision, a speech by BOC's Schembri is the other event worth noting.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.