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Wednesday kicks off with the release of German industrial production figures at 0700BST, followed by Italian retail sales at 0900BST. At 1500BST the publication of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is worth noting in terms of US data releases.
German industrial production expected to tick up
German industrial production is forecast to rise by 0.5% in May, after declining by 1.0% in April. Annual output was up 26.4% in April, as many companies were closed in April 2020 and markets look for another strong increase in May by 17.7%. Compared to February 2020 before the pandemic, production was still 5.6% lower in April.
Survey evidence suggests a solid expansion of business activity in May and June. The manufacturing PMI noted that both output and new orders expanded in June, although supply shortages remained an issue. On the other hand, the truck toll mileage index, which is closely connected to industrial production, edged lower in May, posing a downside risk.
Source: Destatis
Italian retail sales seen rising
Following a 0.4% drop in April, Italian retail sales are forecast to increase by 3.0% in May. Annual sales surged to 30.4% in April due to base effects, but markets expect the index to decelerate to 10.8% in May. As many businesses were still closed in April, non-food sales declined 1.5% in April, while food sales were up 1.0%. Restrictions were eased in early May with non-essential shops reopening, which bodes well with consumer spending and should provide a boost to sales in May.
US job openings to rise further
The job openings and labor turnover survey reported a series high for job openings in April with the indicator rising to 9.29 million. In May, markets expect another uptick to 9.39 million job openings, which would be a new series high. April's survey showed that job openings increased especially in sectors such as accommodation and food and services, which was likely driven by easing of restrictions and the progress of vaccinations. This trend is likely to continue in May, as restrictions eased further.
The main speakers to follow on Wednesday include ECB's Andrea Enria and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.