Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Monday kicks off with the publication of German industrial production figures at 0700GMT, followed by Spanish industrial production at 0800GMT. In the US the only release of note is wholesale trade at 1500GMT.
German industrial production seen lower
Monthly industrial output stagnated in December following seven successive months of growth. Annual output fell by 1.0%, up from -2.5% recorded in November. December output was still 3.6% lower than in February 2020 before the crisis. Over 2020, industrial production fell by 8.5% against 2019. In January, markets expect industrial output to ease by 0.3% on monthly basis, while annual production is seen at -3.2%. The truck toll mileage index, which is closely connected with industrial production, fell by 3.2% in January. On the other hand, industrial orders came in stronger than markets expected and rebounded to 1.4% m/m. Meanwhile, the German manufacturing PMI surged to a 37-month high in Feb, signalling strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, the Ifo business climate in the industrial sector jumped to the highest level since November 2018.
Source: Destatis
Spanish industrial production forecast to fall
Industrial output rebounded in December to 1.1% on a monthly basis, after falling by 0.9% in the previous month. December's uptick was mainly driven by energy output, which increased 9.2% m/m, followed by capital goods production, rising by 1.7%. In January markets look for small dip to -0.5% for monthly industrial output, while annual production is expected to slip to -0.5% as well. Forward-looking survey evidence suggests a muted outlook for January. The Spanish manufacturing PMI shifted below the 50-mark in January as strict covid restrictions, the storm Filomena and delivery delays weighed on business activity. However, the index rebounded in February due to improved domestic and foreign demand.
US wholesale inventories seen unchanged
Monthly wholesale sales increased 1.2% in December, while annual sales registered at 1.7%. Meanwhile, the November rate was revised up from 0.2% to 0.3%. Wholesalers inventories were up 0.3% on a monthly basis, while yearly inventories fell by 1.6%. In January, markets look for wholesale inventories to remain at December's level of 1.3%. February's ISM services PMI suggests higher prices of raw materials for wholesalers which is likely to weigh on sales going forward.
The events calendar remains quiet on Monday with the only highlights being speeches by Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.