Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The main data events in Europe Tuesday include the publications of the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator at 1000GMT, followed by German inflation at 1300GMT. In the US the release of the consumer confidence index will be closely watched at 1500GMT.
EZ ESI projected pick up
The EZ ESI is forecast to increase to 96.0 in March, up from 93.4 seen in February. This would mark the highest level since February 2020. March's uptick will be broad-based with consumer confidence rising to -10.8 according to the flash estimate, up from -14.8 and marking the highest level since the start of the pandemic. Manufacturing sentiment is also forecast to improve further to the highest level since January 2019 and service sector sentiment is expected to improve to -15, the best level since October. Consumer and service sentiment are projected to improve despite rising infection rates in many European countries and subsequent strict restrictions. Similar surveys is in line with market forecasts. Th Ifo business climate index increased significantly in March, while the services PMI ticked up to a seven-month high and the manufacturing hit a record high.
German inflation seen at ECB's target
Annual inflation is expected to rise further in March to 2.0%, which would be the highest level since April 2019, while the monthly HICP is seen slightly lower at 0.5%. The uptick of the annual rate is likely be driven by energy prices considering the large decline in oil prices seen a year ago. The flash composite PMI suggests inflationary pressures due to higher prices at the factory gate for commodities and transport.
Source: Destatis
US consumer confidence to edge higher
US consumer sentiment is forecast to rise further in March to 96.1, following February's increase to 91.3. February's uptick was driven by a sharp increase of the present situations index to 92.0, while the expectations index eased to 90.8. The survey noted that consumers remain optimistic about the outlook in the months ahead. Vacation intentions picked up in February, boosted by the vaccination progress. Similar survey evidence is in line with market forecasts. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased as well in March to the highest level in one year, led by the distribution of relief checks and the better than expected vaccination program.
The main events to look out for include speeches by ECB's Elizabeth McCaul, Fed's Randal Quarles, Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic and New York Fed's John Williams.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.