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BofA European FMS Still Bullish Equities

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The UK short-term indicator data re the standout releases due Friday, as the monthly GDP release for April will underline the recovery seen start of the Q2 recovery after the latest lockdown tipped the economy back into contraction in Q1.

Monthly GDP is seen up 2.4% m/m, building on the 2.1% m/m gain in March that started the pick-up from the weakness in January and February. The manufacturing sector will be a big driver of the growth, with production seen higher by 1.5% m/m and industrial production up 1.2% m/m.

UK Monthly GDP (m/m)

Source: Bloomberg

However, services will still be the key to the monthly gain, buoyed by the reopening of parts of the hospitality and retail sectors. On a monthly basis, the Index of Services are seen higher by 2.8%. The UK's overall trade deficit is seen widening to GBP2.5 billion from GBP1.97 billion in March.

Spanish final inflation for May is expected at 0800GMT, and will likely confirm the harmonised flash data of 0.5% m/m and 2.4% y/y. The core readings are expected to be +0.9% m/m and 0.0% y/y.

A Bank of England hosted event will see a host of speakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governors Ramsden and Cunliffe and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak.