Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The main data events in Europe on Thursday include the publications of the French business climate indicator at 0745GMT, followed by the CBI distributive trades survey at 1100GMT. In the US, the release of initial jobless claims will be closely watched at 1230GMT. The SNB's latest policy decision at 0830GMR will also be closely watched.
French business climate seen higher
The French business climate indicator is forecast to tick up slightly in March to 91, up from 90 seen in February. The indicator fluctuates in recent months and remains well below the pre-pandemic level and the long-term average. The crisis continues to dictate business confidence in various sectors. Services and retail trade sentiment weakened in February to their lowest levels since November. On the other hand, manufacturing confidence improved for the third consecutive month as the sector is less affected by the restrictions. Manufacturing sentiment is also projected to rise further in March by 1pt to 98. Similar survey evidence suggests an upside risk. The flash manufacturing PMI posted a 39-month high in March with output levels rising sharply, while the services sector continued to decline, although at the softest rate seen in 2021.
CBI retail sales projected to improve
CBI retail sales are forecast to fall at a slower pace in March than in February. The indicator is expected to improve to -37, up from -45 seen in February. This would mark the highest level since December 2020. However, sales remain low by historical standards, although a record rise in online sales provided a source of relief. The recent release of the UK's flash PMI suggests an upside risk. The report noted an increase in sales ahead of easing lockdown measures and stronger consumer confidence. Looking ahead, April is likely to see another boost in sales as shops are allowed to open again by mid-April.
US weekly jobless claims forecast to slow
U.S. initial jobless claims filed through March 20 should fall to 738,000 from 770,000 through March 13, according to Bloomberg. This week is likely to mark the 52nd consecutive week that more than one million Americans filed for unemployment when special programs like the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program are factored into the total. Continuing claims through March 13 are expected to dip to 4.03 million after falling to 4.12 million through March 6.
The main speakers to follow on Thursday include ECB's Christine Lagarde, Isabel Schnabel and Luis de Guindos as well as BOE's Andrew Bailey, New York Fed's John Williams, Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.