Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Thursday sees a limited data session in Europe with eurozone trade data the only release of note. The highlight of the day is the release o the U.S. retail sales data at 1330BST.
U.S. consumer seen slowing (1300 BST)
U.S. monthly retail sales continued to decline in August, with analysts forecasting a 0.9% decrease following July's 1.1% drop. Falling auto sales due to inventory shortages should lead August's decline, though restaurant reservations also softened through the month as consumers wary of the spread of Delta practiced caution, as noted in MNI's latest Reality Check.
Still, analysts say the back-to-school shopping season could have offset some of that weakness, and spending was likely strong in categories like clothing and electronics, despite supply issues.
Excluding vehicle sales, retail sales should fall 0.2%, according to Bloomberg, and sales excluding both vehicle and gas station sales should decrease 0.1%. Control group sales are expected to fall 0.2% after a much stronger 1% decline in July.
Also due Thursday is the latest US initial jobless claims data and the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey. Initial claims are seen edging higher to 320,000 from last week's post-pandemic low of 310,000.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.