Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Developed Markets
MONDAY / FRIDAY - Eurozone Q1 Debt/Deficit Data and EDP Confirmation
On Monday, Eurostat reports Q1 deficit/debt data for the Eurozone and its member states. Renewed concerns around fiscal sustainability in the bloc arose following the French snap legislative election announcement and subsequent results. The EC forecasts the Eurozone-wide budget deficit to ease to 3.0% of GDP in 2024 (vs 3.6% in 2023), and overall Government debt to GDP to rise to 90% (vs 88.6% in 2023). Monday's Q1 data will thus provide a status update for these projections. On Friday, the European Council is set to confirm Excessive Deficit Procedures against seven EU countries (including France, Italy and Belgium), after the European Commission proposed the notion in its Spring Package on June 19.
WEDNESDAY - Eurozone Flash PMIs
The July flash PMI round is due on Wednesday. In the Eurozone, consensus is for a 0.2-point increase in both services and manufacturing components, to 53.0 and 46.0 respectively. This suggests a continuation of the dynamic highlighted by President Lagarde in the ECB's July meeting press conference, with services driving the Eurozone's gradual recovery in economic activity. While inflation components (particularly in services) will naturally be in focus, the growth components will also be interesting after President Lagarde seemingly put increased emphasis on downside risks to the Eurozone growth outlook (and net exports in particular) compared to previous press conferences.
WEDNESDAY - BoC Decision
The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday when it’s widely expected to cut for the second consecutive meeting, taking the overnight rate to 4.5%. BoC-dated OIS currently prices 23-24bp of cuts for the meeting but we feel this overstates the likelihood of a cut considering the Bank’s willingness to surprise markets through the hiking cycle. The labour market has clearly moderated further since it decided to cut for the first time this cycle in June, with the unemployment rate at 6.4% in June vs the 6.1% in April in the latest data it had at the time. However, both headline and CPI inflation surprised higher in the May report and whilst they reversed some of this strength in the recent June report the core trend has still accelerated. The average of median and trim has climbed to 2.9% annualized over three months vs 1.6% in April data prior the June BoC, although other core metrics leave our crude “underlying” measure more firmly within the 1-3% target band at 2.7% annualized over three months and 2.0% over six months. We still feel cuts are justified ahead but see risks of a hawkish surprise, in tone more so than the rate decision itself, considering the market set up.
THURSDAY - US Q2 GDP Advance Reading
The week’s more significant US data is skewed later in the week, starting on Thursday with advance Q2 national accounts but a special mention for weekly jobless claims before Friday’s monthly PCE report. The national accounts release will include the first look at real GDP growth in Q2 (Bloomberg consensus currently 1.9% but Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow has firmed recently to 2.7%) after the 1.4% in Q1 was weighed down by a 0.4pp drag from inventories. It will also includes core PCE inflation with the usual implications for the June release conditional on prior month revisions. We have seen unrounded analyst post-CPI and PPI estimates for core PCE averaging 0.17% M/M in June. That’s an acceleration from a particularly soft 0.08% M/M in May but nevertheless giving the FOMC greater confidence that the Q1 surge was a bump in the disinflation path.
Back to jobless claims, we watch initial claims in Texas in particular next week after they accounted for one third of a surprise jump in nationwide claims in the week to July 13, capturing the payrolls reference period. This could have been a byproduct of Hurricane Beryl and no material correction lower next week could add to signs of continued labor market moderation. Continuing claims, lagged a week as usual, pushed to fresh highs since Nov 2021 in seasonally adjusted data the week prior to Beryl hiting.
Emerging Markets
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The NBH is expected to act in-line with its hawkish messaging and keep rates unchanged at 7%. Despite headline inflation coming in below expectations in June, Deputy Governor Virag said the central bank will not overreact to a single positive data-point. Among sell-side, most analysts are expecting rates to be held steady at this juncture, though risks of a 25bp cut acknowledged are by most.
TUESDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
The CBRT is widely expected to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50%, presumably having reached the peak of its hiking cycle back in March. Nevertheless, the Bank have made further adjustments to its macroprudential toolkit in order to manage liquidity and supplement its rate pauses. Among sell-side, some analysts see rate cuts commencing by year-end.
FRIDAY - CBR Decision (Russia)
The CBR is expected to deliver a large rate hike of 200bps after price growth in Russia accelerated for the sixth straight month. The central bank has held the benchmark at 16% since December, but Governor Nabiullina has warned that a “significant” rate hike will be needed if inflationary pressures don’t start to fade.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 22/07/2024 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 22/07/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 23/07/2024 | 0700/0900 |  | EU | ECB's Lane at ECB/IMF conference in Frankfurt | |
| 23/07/2024 | 0900/1000 | * |  | UK | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 23/07/2024 | 1100/0700 | *** |  | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 23/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 23/07/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 23/07/2024 | 1400/1600 | ** | | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 23/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 23/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 23/07/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 23/07/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 24/07/2024 | 2300/0900 | *** |  | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 24/07/2024 | 2301/0001 | * | | UK | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 24/07/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 24/07/2024 | 0600/0800 | * |  | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 24/07/2024 | 0645/0845 | | EU | ECB's de Guindos at ECB/IMF conference | |
| 24/07/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** |  | ES | PPI |
| 24/07/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** | | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2024 | 0730/0930 | ** | | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2024 | 0730/0930 | ** | | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2024 | 0830/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 24/07/2024 | 0830/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 24/07/2024 | 0830/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 24/07/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 24/07/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 24/07/2024 | 1200/1400 | | EU | ECB's Lane at ECB/IMF conference | |
| 24/07/2024 | 1345/0945 |  | CA | BOC Monetary Policy Report | |
| 24/07/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 24/07/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 24/07/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 24/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | New Home Sales |
| 24/07/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 24/07/2024 | 1430/1030 | | CA | BOC Governor Press Conference | |
| 24/07/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 24/07/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 25/07/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | PPI |
| 25/07/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 25/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | M3 |
| 25/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25/07/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25/07/2024 | - | | EU | ECB's Cipollone at Rio de Janeiro G20 Fin min/central bank meeting | |
| 25/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 25/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 25/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | GDP |
| 25/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Payroll employment |
| 25/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 25/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 25/07/2024 | 1300/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 25/07/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 25/07/2024 | 1500/1100 | ** | | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 25/07/2024 | 1500/1700 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde attends Paris Summit | |
| 25/07/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 26/07/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** | | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 26/07/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | SE | Unemployment |
| 26/07/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 26/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 26/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 26/07/2024 | - | | EU | ECB's Cipollone at Rio de Janeiro G20 Fin min/central bank meeting | |
| 26/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 26/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 26/07/2024 | 1500/1100 | | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 26/07/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.