MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: BOE, Norges & SNB Look Set to Hike

The week ahead will see the focus shift to UK data, including the CPI print ahead of the BOE’s rate decision. The SNB and Norges also appear set to hike during a very quiet week in US data.

MONDAY

No data of note.

TUESDAY

Germany Producer Prices: German factory-gate inflation is projected to slow further in May, with consensus looking for a -0.7% m/m decline, adding to deflationary m/m prints over six of the last seven months. PPI is expected to cool by 2.4pp to +1.7% y/y, the lowest since pre-pandemic January 2021. Easing energy prices alongside a reduction in demand and supply-chain issues as flagged in recent PMI data underpins the downwards trajectory of PPI.

Eurozone Construction: April construction output will likely see another contractive month for the bloc, after falling by -2.4% m/m in March. Outlooks for the euro area construction sector remain bleak. The eurozone construction PMI has been in contractive territory for 13 months and flagging a Q2 decline as rising interest rates squeeze already-weak demand.

WEDNESDAY

UK Inflation Report: UK CPI is anticipated to ease by 0.3pp to +8.4% y/y, with prices up +0.5% m/m in May. Core CPI is seen holding steady, after jumping a surprise 0.6pp to +6.8% y/y in April. Eyes will be on moves in services CPI, which accelerated to a 1992 high in the April release. This data in conjunction with strong services PMI activity adds to the sticky-core inflation conundrum faced by the BOE.

THURSDAY

Switzerland Rate Decision: The SNB expected to also hike 25bp, bringing rates to 1.75% in their meeting. Swiss inflation is continued to cool in the May data, matching expectations with 0.3pp deceleration to +2.3% y/y, the lowest since Feb 2022. Yet with headline CPI still above target and the infrequency of SNB quarterly meets, an outside chance of a 50bp hike exists. Markets are pricing a SNB peak rate of just over 2%.

Norway Rate Decision: Norges Bank is largely anticipated to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 3.5% and lift its signalled peak rate at the June meeting. NOK weakness and the stronger-than-expected April and May inflation data are underscoring hawkish sentiment at the bank. A larger 50bp hike remains unlikely.

Bank of England Rate Decision: The BOE will wrap up with the third likely 25bp hike of Thursday, to 4.75% and marking a 13^th consecutive increase. Despite the April 1.4pp fall in headline inflation to 8.7% y/y, UK core CPI has been notoriously sticky. The May inflation print due the day before will be closely eyed (the MPC will have access on Monday), with any major surprises likely to push pricing.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence: Consumer sentiment in the bloc is projected to edge up in the June prelim report, with consensus pencilling in a modest 0.4-point uptick to -17.0. Consumer confidence rose a mere 0.1pp in May as expectations for personal finances and the general economic conditions inched up. However, major purchase intentions faltered somewhat last month and unemployment concerns ticked up, indicating consumption is likely to remain pressured as uncertainty prevails.

FRIDAY

UK Consumer Confidence / Retail Sales: Consumer confidence is likely to improve for a fifth month in the UK June release, with a two-point uptick to -25 pencilled in by consensus. This remains deeply negative.

Meanwhile, a May slump in retail sales of -0.2% m/m (-0.3% m/m excluding fuel) will likely reiterate that retail sales remain lacklustre at best, as the high cost of living weighs on spending appetite. This would imply that the tentative recovery in April sales of +0.5% m/m was short-lived.

Flash PMIs for June: This month’s round of flash PMI data is expected to highlight continued service sector strength, with major economies firmly in expansive territory, albeit losing momentum slightly. Manufacturing PMIs are seen edging up (barring France), however will continue to contract as demand remains pressured.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
19/06/2023	1100/1300			EU	ECB Lane Fireside Chat
19/06/2023	1140/1340			EU	ECB Schnabel at Euro50 Group Conference
19/06/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
19/06/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
20/06/2023	0115/0915	***		CN	Loan Prime Rate
20/06/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/06/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Account
20/06/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
20/06/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
20/06/2023	1030/0630			US	St. Louis Fed's James Bullard
20/06/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
20/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
20/06/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
20/06/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
20/06/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
20/06/2023	1710/1910			EU	ECB de Guindos Remarks at German Bernacer Prize
21/06/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
21/06/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Producer Prices
21/06/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Consumer inflation report
21/06/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
21/06/2023	0830/0930	*		UK	ONS House Price Index
21/06/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
21/06/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
21/06/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
21/06/2023	1345/1545			EU	ECB Schnabel Panels Discussion at Landesvertretung Hessen
21/06/2023	1400/1000			US	Senate Hearing on Fed Nominees
21/06/2023	1400/1000			US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
21/06/2023	1625/1225			US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
21/06/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
21/06/2023	1730/1330			CA	BOC minutes from last rate meeting
22/06/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
22/06/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
22/06/2023	0730/0930	***		CH	SNB PolicyRate
22/06/2023	0800/1000	***		NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
22/06/2023	0800/0400			US	Fed Governor Chris Waller
22/06/2023	0915/1115			EU	ECB Panetta Speech at Buba/ECB/Chicago Fed Conference
22/06/2023	1100/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
22/06/2023	1100/0700	*		TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
22/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
22/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
22/06/2023	1230/0830	*		US	Current Account Balance
22/06/2023	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
22/06/2023	1400/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
22/06/2023	1400/1000			US	Fed's Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester
22/06/2023	1400/1000			US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
22/06/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
22/06/2023	1430/1630			EU	ECB de Guindos at Financial Journalists' Roundtable
22/06/2023	1500/1100	**		US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
22/06/2023	1500/1100	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
22/06/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
22/06/2023	1900/1500			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
22/06/2023	2030/1630			US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
23/06/2023	2300/0900	***		AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
23/06/2023	2301/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
23/06/2023	2330/0830	***		JP	CPI
23/06/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
23/06/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
23/06/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	GDP (f)
23/06/2023	0715/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/06/2023	0715/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/06/2023	0730/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/06/2023	0730/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/06/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/06/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/06/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
23/06/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
23/06/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Services PMI flash
23/06/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
23/06/2023	0915/0515			US	St. Louis Fed's James Bullard
23/06/2023	1200/0800			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
23/06/2023	1245/1445			EU	ECB Panetta in BIS Conference Discussion
23/06/2023	1300/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
23/06/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
23/06/2023	1345/0945	***		US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
23/06/2023	1530/1630			UK	BOE Announces Q3-23 Active Gilt Sales Schedule
23/06/2023	1740/1340			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester