MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - BoJ Decision, UK CPI and EM CBs

TUESDAY: BOJ DECISION

While certain investors interpreted recent statements from Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials regarding exit scenarios as a sign of an imminent shift away from yield curve control, we are inclined to view it as a strategic step in the extended process of preparing for a seamless transition, likely occurring around mid-year next year. Consequently, we anticipate the BOJ to maintain its current stance, including at the upcoming meeting next week, which marks the last for 2023. Regarding the Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP), we anticipate the BOJ to maintain its short-term rate at -0.1% next week but with the expectation for it to end in 2024. This outlook is in line with the latest Reuters poll, where 84% of surveyed economists anticipate the BOJ to cease NIRP in 2024, compared to 71% in the November poll and 54% in October.

TUESDAY: EUROZONE NOVEMBER FINAL HICP

Eurozone final HICP for November is released on Tuesday, including the full breakdown of COICOP sub-components. The flash estimate printed at an unrounded +2.41% (vs +2.7% cons; +2.90% prior), the first time the headline has been below 2.5% since July 2021. Disinflation was seen in both core goods and services components, with one area interest being the extent to which travel components pulled down the services print (due to the high weighting of German package holidays). We will also focus our attention on the extent to which inflation breadth (measured as the % of 4-digit COICOP sub-components that have Y/Y inflation rates above 2%) improved in November, alongside the release of the ECB's underlying inflation measures (e.g. PCCI).

TUESDAY: LATAM CENTRAL BANKS

Analysts remain evenly split over whether Colombia’s central bank (Tue) will keep rates unchanged at 13.25% or initiate the easing cycle with a 25bp rate cut. In Chile, the BCCh (Tue) will likely deliver another 50bp rate cut to 8.50%. Higher-than-expected November inflation data has curtailed expectations for bolder easing at this juncture.

TUESDAY/THURSDAY: CEEMEA CENTRAL BANKS

The NBH (Tue) is expected to deliver another 75bp rate cut in December, taking the base rate to 10.75%. This follows comments from Deputy Governor Virag last month who said that the base rate could drop to below 10% by February, implying 75bp cuts in each of the December and January meetings at least.

In Turkey, the CBRT (Thu) is widely expected to deliver another rate hike, though the scale of such an increase is expected to be moderated following three consecutive 500bp hikes. A smaller 250bp move is the overwhelming consensus among sell-side, which would take the year-end one-week repo rate to 42.50% from just 9.00% in January.

WEDNESDAY: UK NOVEMBER CPI

UK November CPI is released on Wednesday, with current consensus looking for headline CPI at 4.3% Y/Y (vs 4.6% prior) and core at 5.5% Y/Y (vs 5.7% prior). In its December meeting policy statement, the BoE noted that "CPI inflation is expected to remain near to its current rate around the turn of the year". Services inflation is seen stable at 6.6% Y/Y, though a temporary increase is expected in January due to base effects from "unusually weak price movements at the start of" 2023. Services inflation remains one of the three key metrics that the BoE is tracking to determine inflation persistence, so further falls in this measure will be a necessary condition for the BoE to entertain rate cuts in the near future.

FRIDAY: JAPAN CPI

November Japan nationwide CPI is expected to lose further momentum in y/y terms. The headline is forecast at 2.47% y/y, versus 3.3% prior. Ex Fresh food is projected at 2.5%y/y, while the measure that also strips out energy is projected at 3.8% y/y. Both measures are expected to show slower momentum relative to October. We have seen continued downside pressure in the Japan PPI, which in y/y terms is also back to flat. Also note Tokyo November CPI prints came in below estimates and continued to show moderating y/y momentum (back to 2.6% y/y for the headline).

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
18/12/2023	0900/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index
18/12/2023	1030/1030			UK	BOE's Broadbent speech at London Business School
18/12/2023	1330/1430			EU	ECB Schnabel Lectures On EU Fiscal Policy And Governance
18/12/2023	1500/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
18/12/2023	1500/1600			EU	ECB Lane Chairs Panel on EMU Reforms
18/12/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
18/12/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
19/12/2023	0300/1200	***		JP	BOJ policy announcement
19/12/2023	0900/1000			EU	ECB Elderson Statement On Banking Risks and Priorities
19/12/2023	1000/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
19/12/2023	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
19/12/2023	1300/1300			UK	BOE Breeden Speech At IIF Policy Series
19/12/2023	1330/0830	***		CA	CPI
19/12/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
19/12/2023	1330/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
19/12/2023	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
19/12/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
19/12/2023	1730/1230			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
20/12/2023	0001/0001	*		UK	XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
20/12/2023	0700/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/12/2023	0700/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
20/12/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Consumer inflation report
20/12/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Producer Prices
20/12/2023	0700/1500	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Index (CLI)
20/12/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Account
20/12/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
20/12/2023	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
20/12/2023	1330/0830	*		US	Current Account Balance
20/12/2023	1400/1500			EU	ECB Lane Speech On Euro Area Outlook
20/12/2023	1500/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
20/12/2023	1500/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
20/12/2023	1500/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
20/12/2023	1530/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
20/12/2023	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
20/12/2023	1830/1330			CA	BOC minutes from last rate meeting
21/12/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
21/12/2023	0745/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
21/12/2023	0800/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
21/12/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	PPI
21/12/2023	1100/0600	***		TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
21/12/2023	1330/0830	***		US	Jobless Claims
21/12/2023	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
21/12/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
21/12/2023	1330/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
21/12/2023	1330/0830	***		US	GDP
21/12/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
21/12/2023	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
21/12/2023	1600/1100	**		US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
21/12/2023	1600/1700			EU	ECB Lane Participates In Workshop Panel
21/12/2023	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
22/12/2023	2330/0830	***		JP	CPI
22/12/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
22/12/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
22/12/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	PPI
22/12/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	GDP Second Estimate
22/12/2023	0700/0700	*		UK	Quarterly current account balance
22/12/2023	0745/0845	**		FR	Consumer Sentiment
22/12/2023	0745/0845	**		FR	PPI
22/12/2023	0800/0900	***		ES	GDP (f)
22/12/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
22/12/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
22/12/2023	-			UK	Publication of the Treasury Bill Calendar for January - March 2024
22/12/2023	1330/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
22/12/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Durable Goods New Orders
22/12/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
22/12/2023	1400/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
22/12/2023	1500/1000	***		US	New Home Sales
22/12/2023	1500/1000	**		US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
22/12/2023	1800/1300	**		US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly