Free Trial

MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Chinese Data Drop Raises Focus on Stimulus Hopes


Chinese CPI is expected to have fallen into deflationary territory in July, with the headline Y/Y reading seen at -0.5%, while the rate of PPI deflation is expected to ease to -4.0% Y/Y from the -5.4% seen in June. Policymakers have stepped in with easing measures but have refrained from deploying meaningful fiscal stimulus at the household level, choosing to focus on the property sector and private economy.

On the PPI side, CNY-adjusted oil prices remain comfortably below levels seen at this time last year, despite the recent rebound, while mined commodities and housing price dynamics also present downside impetus.

Elsewhere, Chinese credit data is set to cross between 9-15 August, with money supply growth expected to slow, while aggregate financing and new yuan loans are expected to pare back after June’s notable jump higher. The idea of a Chinese balance sheet recession has gained more airtime, although views on that front are varied. Those who have pushed the idea lean into the need for meaningful fiscal stimulus, playing down the need for deeper monetary easing.


The July release of Norwegian inflation is expected to show Y/Y CPI slowing to 5.9% from 6.4% previously, despite a pick up in M/M CPI to 0.9%. More importantly for markets, the Norges Bank’s preferred inflation gauge - CPI-ATE underlying inflation - is expected to slow.

Core inflation has been particularly sticky in Norway, reaching a new cycle high of 7.0% in June and forcing the Bank to re-initiate a faster pace of tightening. The bank look likely to raise the deposit rate by a further 25bps on August 17th, with September’s policy report key for rates into year-end.


Consensus pencils in core CPI at 0.2% M/M in July after 0.16% M/M in June, which if realized would be a second notably softer print after six months before that running at 0.4% or higher. The more hawkish FOMC participants have previously been keen to stress the need to see a sustainable moderation lower, but two softer prints, especially if another ‘low' 0.2 for a rate consistent with the 2% target, could help firm market expectations that the Fed’s hiking cycle is over (currently showing a cumulative 8bps of additional tightening after the payrolls report). The previous emphasis placed on core non-housing service inflation should again see it in focus, and another print close to the exactly flat June reading would likely be met with a further dovish market reaction. There is however another round of both payrolls and CPI reports before the next FOMC decision, plus the July core PCE report after it too printed its first reading consistent with 2% inflation since Jul’22 and before that Feb’21 in June.


Banxico are expected to keep policy unchanged, with the key overnight rate at 11.25%, on Thursday. This makes Mexican policy stand out against other Latam peers, with both the Brazilian and Chilean central banks initiated easing cycles in the past week or so. The Bank are expected to point to continued uncertainty surrounding the pullback in inflation as justification for retaining tight policy.

07/08/20230545/0745**CH Unemployment
07/08/20230600/0800**DE Industrial Production
07/08/20231230/0830US Fed's Michelle Bowman, Raphael Bostic
07/08/20231530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
07/08/20231530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
07/08/20231600/1700UK BOE Pill speaks at the MPR Live Q&A
07/08/20231900/1500*US Consumer Credit
08/08/20232301/0001*UK BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
08/08/20230405/1205***CN Trade
08/08/20230600/0800***DE HICP (f)
08/08/20230645/0845*FR Foreign Trade
08/08/20230900/1000*UK Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
08/08/20231000/0600**US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
08/08/20231215/0815US Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
08/08/20231230/0830**CA International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
08/08/20231230/0830**US Trade Balance
08/08/20231230/0830US Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
08/08/20231255/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
08/08/20231400/1000**US IBD/TIPP Optimism Index
08/08/20231400/1000**US Wholesale Trade
08/08/20231530/1130**US US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
08/08/20231530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
08/08/20231700/1300***US US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
09/08/20230130/0930***CN CPI
09/08/20230130/0930***CN Producer Price Index
09/08/20230900/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
09/08/20231100/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
09/08/20231230/0830*CA Building Permits
09/08/20231430/1030**US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
09/08/20231700/1300**US US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result
10/08/20230600/0800*NO CPI Norway
10/08/20230600/0800**SE Private Sector Production
10/08/20230800/1000**IT Italy Final HICP
10/08/20231230/0830**US Jobless Claims
10/08/20231230/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
10/08/20231230/0830***US CPI
10/08/20231430/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
10/08/20231700/1300***US US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond
10/08/20231800/1400**US Treasury Budget
10/08/20231900/1500US Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
11/08/20230600/0700**UK UK Monthly GDP
11/08/20230600/0700**UK Index of Services
11/08/20230600/0700***UK Index of Production
11/08/20230600/0700**UK Trade Balance
11/08/20230600/0700**UK Output in the Construction Industry
11/08/20230600/0700***UK GDP First Estimate
11/08/20230645/0845***FR HICP (f)
11/08/20230700/0900***ES HICP (f)
11/08/2023-***CN Money Supply
11/08/2023-***CN New Loans
11/08/2023-***CN Social Financing
11/08/2023-***CN Social Financing
11/08/20231230/0830***US PPI
11/08/20231400/1000**US U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
11/08/20231600/1200***US USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.