MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Earnings, Inflation & Payrolls

US EARNINGS: Season So Far Remains Ahead of Expectations

Apple, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway are the highlights of the coming week, with 28% of the S&P 500 set to report. The average S&P 500 firm has beaten EPS forecast by 12.8% and topped revenue estimates by 0.8%. The real estate and communications services sectors have fared the best vs. expectations, while energy, materials and utilities are the only sectors to have missed on sales

Full schedule including timings, EPS and revenue expectations here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/54997/MNIUSEARNINGS280723.pdf

MONDAY: Eurozone CPI Estimate for July

As with June, there is a fairly wide range of estimates for core Eurozone Y/Y inflation, from 5.2% to 5.7% from the initial analyst reports we have seen, centring on a 5.4% median. That would represent limited progress from June’s 5.5% outturn. Headline is seen decelerating more sharply, to 5.2% from June’s 5.5% (with a relatively narrower range of estimates from 5.1-5.3%). While goods and commodity price pressures continue to subside, they remain elevated for services – the latter of which was again the second biggest contributor to June’s print.

Our preview includes analysis of several key areas to watch, short outlooks for the national inflation prints prior to the eurozone release, and sell-side analyst previews: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/54870/EZInflationPrevJul2023.pdf

TUESDAY: Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

The RBA will issue its latest monetary policy decision on Tuesday. The Bank will consider raising its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35%, although it is by no means a clear-cut decision given the combination of continued resilience in the labour market, lingering worry surrounding wage rises, softer than expected Q2 CPI data (which remains comfortably above target, with particularly firm service sector inflation noted) and a soft retail sales reading for June. RBA-dated OIS only shows ~6bp of tightening for the event in the wake of the retail sales release, while the Bloomberg survey covering the event leans towards a 25bp hike, although the majority looking for that move isn’t particularly overwhelming (15/26 look for a hike)

The Bank will it have updated quarterly economic forecasts to hand when it issues the decision (some of this will filter out on Tuesday, in the meeting statement, while the Statement on Monetary Policy will be formally released on Friday). May’s projections did not see headline CPI falling back to the top of the Bank’s 2-3% target band until Q2 2025. The Bank’s guidance paragraph will be scrutinised no matter the outcome.

THURSDAY: Bank of England Rate Decision

The Bank of England’s MPC will announce its policy decision alongside releasing the Minutes and the MPR at midday UK time on Thursday. Market pricing has drifted lower over the past couple of weeks, initially triggered by a lower-than-expected headline and core inflation print. Markets were pricing in around 28bp for the meeting at the time of writing, down from a peak of around 48bp. Economists are a bit more split between a 25bp and 50bp hike. The MNI Markets team notes that both wage data and services inflation remains higher than expected and these are the two factors the MPC cited most closely to back up the June 50bp hike. We therefore slightly lean towards expecting another 50bp hike, although acknowledge that outside of services/wages other parts of the inflation print (particularly food and core goods inflation) and labour market data have softened - and hence there is still a strong case for 25bp.

FRIDAY: Nonfarm Payrolls for July

Non-farm payrolls are seen consolidating June’s shift to a softer pace, with consensus for 200k in July after June’s 209k marked the first miss in fifteen months along with a particularly heavy -110k two-month revision. AHE should be in focus as well, seen cooling to 0.3% M/M from 0.4% although that was flattered by rounding at 0.36% M/M. Friday’s ECI moderated more than expected in Q2 and even though latest AHE data have stalled their prior downward trend, a downside surprise here could build on the goldilocks nature of the advance Q2 national accounts. Finally, watch the unemployment rate after the household survey was tighter than most probably expected in June, with analysts seeing an unchanged 3.6% that will quickly start to make the FOMC’s 4.1% projection for 4Q23 from the June SEP look unrealistic.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
31/07/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/07/2023	0130/0930	**		CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
31/07/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Retail Sales
31/07/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Import/Export Prices
31/07/2023	0800/1000	***		IT	GDP (p)
31/07/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE M4
31/07/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE Lending to Individuals
31/07/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (p)
31/07/2023	0900/1100	***		IT	HICP (p)
31/07/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	GDP preliminary flash est.
31/07/2023	1342/0942	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
31/07/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
31/07/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
31/07/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
01/08/2023	2300/0900	**		AU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
01/08/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/08/2023	0130/1130	*		AU	Building Approvals
01/08/2023	0130/1130	**		AU	Lending Finance Details
01/08/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI
01/08/2023	0430/1430	***		AU	RBA Rate Decision
01/08/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	Unemployment
01/08/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/08/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01/08/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Unemployment
01/08/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
01/08/2023	-	***		US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
01/08/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
01/08/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final)
01/08/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Manufacturing Index
01/08/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Construction Spending
01/08/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS jobs opening level
01/08/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS quits Rate
01/08/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
01/08/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
02/08/2023	2245/1045	***		NZ	Quarterly Labor market data
02/08/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
02/08/2023	1215/0815	***		US	ADP Employment Report
02/08/2023	1400/1000	**		US	housing vacancies
02/08/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
03/08/2023	2300/0900	*		AU	IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI
03/08/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI
03/08/2023	0130/1130	**		AU	Trade Balance
03/08/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Services PMI
03/08/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Trade Balance
03/08/2023	0630/0830	***		CH	CPI
03/08/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
03/08/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
03/08/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
03/08/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
03/08/2023	0800/1000	*		IT	Retail Sales
03/08/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
03/08/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
03/08/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	PPI
03/08/2023	0900/1100			EU	ECB Panetta speaks in Bocconi webinar
03/08/2023	1100/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
03/08/2023	1100/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
03/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
03/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
03/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity
03/08/2023	1230/0830			US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
03/08/2023	1300/1400			UK	BOE DMP Survey
03/08/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (final)
03/08/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
03/08/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Factory New Orders
03/08/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
04/08/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Manufacturing Orders
04/08/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Industrial Production
04/08/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	Industrial Production
04/08/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	Industrial Production
04/08/2023	0730/0930	**		EU	IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI
04/08/2023	0800/1000	*		IT	Industrial Production
04/08/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
04/08/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Retail Sales
04/08/2023	1115/1215			UK	BOE Pill and Shortall speak at MPR National Agency briefing
04/08/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Labour Force Survey
04/08/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Employment Report
04/08/2023	1400/1000	*		CA	Ivey PMI