MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Euro Flash CPI and EZ/US Q1 GDP Eyed

The March survey highlighted substantially stronger manufacturing sentiment. However, with the German manufacturing PMI slipping further into contractionary territory and ZEW expectations taking a substantial hit in April, growth outlooks are looking more stagnant.

TUESDAY

US Consumer Confidence: After US Conference Board consumer confidence came in stronger than expected in March at 104.2 on the back of an uptick in expectations. The indicator is largely expected to remain unchanged in April. Present situation assessments may weaken again due to recent US banking turmoil. However, the April preliminary U.Mich survey saw a surprising bounce, implying that consumers may be looking through banking-related uncertainty for now.

WEDNESDAY

Germany Consumer Confidence: A 1.5-point improvement to -28.0 is expected by consensus for Germany’s GfK consumer sentiment indicator. This would be a seventh consecutive increase, with government energy support largely underpinning optimism. Nonetheless, the propensity to buy subindex remains downtrodden, implying negligible feed-through into stronger spending, evident in monthly retail sales contractions in Q1.

France Consumer Confidence: French sentiment is expected to hold steady in April at 81, having remained in the 80s range since April 2022. This is markedly below the long-run average of 100. Recent civil unrest and strike action may drag the index lower in April.

Riksbank Rate Decision: Despite softer than market expectations, the Swedish March CPIF print remained higher than the Riksbank's forecasts. Swedish inflation remains high and core sticky and with the Krona in need of support, the Riksbank are seen pushing another 50bp hike to bring the policy rate to 3.5%.

THURSDAY

Eurozone Economic Sentiment: Eurozone consumer confidence improved by 1.6 points to -17.5 in the April flash data, the least negative since February 2022. Further details will be released alongside euro area economic sentiment, for which consensus is looking for around an 0.7-point uptick in overall economic sentiment to the 100 mark.

Of note will be insights on consumer inflation expectations, which increased in March, after having continually cooled since October. Another uptick here could concern to the ECB as they grapple with sticky inflationary pressures.

US Advance GDP: US Q1 GDP is seen posting another robust quarter, with consensus pencilling in +2.0% q/q after +2.6% q/q in Q4. Q1 growth will likely post elevated consumer spending boosted by strong services alongside the January jump in retail sales. The latter, boosted by on balance milder than usual weather, saw minimal payback in subsequent months, especially in the more GDP-relevant control group. Meanwhile net exports are likely to soften.

FRIDAY

France Flash GDP / HICP: The French economy is expected to have narrowly avoided stalling in Q1, with consensus looking for a marginal +0.1% q/q, holding pace with Q4 2022.

French flash HICP is expected to hold steady at +6.7% y/y, whilst prices accelerate by a softer +0.4% m/m.

Spain Flash GDP / HICP: Spanish GDP will likely expand by around +0.3% q/q in the Q1 flash report, a 0.1pp improvement on Q4. Inflation is seen bumping up 0.9pp to +4.0% y/y in the HICP flash April print, only partly undoing the surprisingly sharp March deceleration.

Italy Flash GDP: After dipping into a shallow -0.1% q/q Q4 contraction, a modest recovery to +0.2% q/q growth is anticipated by consensus for the Italian economy as it narrowly avoids a technical recession.

Germany Flash GDP / HICP: Consensus is looking for a modest +0.1% q/q expansion for the German economy in Q1, which would also imply a technical recession had been avoided. Forecasts are divergent, with IFO’s Spring forecast looking for a -0.2% q/q decline.

German HICP is expected to hold pace at +7.8% y/y in April. Short-term inflation pressures remain acute, likely to accelerate by +0.8% m/m after +1.1% m/m in March. A slew of state data in the AM will give indication of any surprises on the cards.

Eurozone Flash GDP: After stalling in Q4, the euro area aggregate GDP print is projected to edge up by +0.1% q/q after a flat reading in Q4. More robust industrial production and significant tailwinds boosting services sector activity will likely outweigh weak retail performance.

US MNI Chicago Report: The April Chicago PMI, produced by MNI, comes after seven consecutive months of contractionary activity. The data is due in advance of the strongly correlated ISM manufacturing index.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
24/04/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index
24/04/2023	0900/1100			EU	ECB Panetta Panels Event by Bruegel Think Tank
24/04/2023	1300/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
24/04/2023	1330/1530			EU	ECB Panetta Into at ECON Hearing on Digital Euro
24/04/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
24/04/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
24/04/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
25/04/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
25/04/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	PPI
25/04/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	PPI
25/04/2023	0800/1000			EU	ECB Supervisory Board Chair Andrea Enria and MNI event
25/04/2023	0900/1000			UK	BOE Broadbent Speech at NIESR
25/04/2023	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Industrial Trends
25/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
25/04/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
25/04/2023	1300/0900	**		US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
25/04/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
25/04/2023	1400/1000	***		US	New Home Sales
25/04/2023	1400/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
25/04/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
25/04/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
25/04/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
26/04/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
26/04/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	CPI inflation
26/04/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	CPI Inflation Monthly
26/04/2023	0600/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
26/04/2023	0600/1400	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Suvey
26/04/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
26/04/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Sentiment
26/04/2023	0730/0930	**		SE	Riksbank Interest Rate
26/04/2023	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
26/04/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
26/04/2023	1200/1400			EU	ECB de Guindos Panels Delphi Economic Forum
26/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Durable Goods New Orders
26/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
26/04/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
26/04/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
26/04/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
26/04/2023	1730/1330			CA	BOC minutes from last rate meeting
27/04/2023	0130/1130	**		AU	Trade price indexes
27/04/2023	0700/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
27/04/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
27/04/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
27/04/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
27/04/2023	1100/0700	*		TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
27/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
27/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
27/04/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
27/04/2023	1230/0830	***		US	GDP
27/04/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAR Pending Home Sales
27/04/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
27/04/2023	1500/1100	**		US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
27/04/2023	1615/1815			EU	ECB Panetta at EACB Board Meeting
27/04/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
28/04/2023	2330/0830	**		JP	Tokyo CPI
28/04/2023	0300/1200	***		JP	BOJ policy announcement
28/04/2023	0530/0730	***		FR	GDP (p)
28/04/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
28/04/2023	0630/0830	**		CH	retail sales
28/04/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
28/04/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	PPI
28/04/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Spending
28/04/2023	0700/0900	*		CH	KOF Economic Barometer
28/04/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	GDP (p)
28/04/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	HICP (p)
28/04/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	Unemployment
28/04/2023	0800/1000	***		IT	GDP (p)
28/04/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	GDP (p)
28/04/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q
28/04/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y
28/04/2023	1200/1400	***		DE	HICP (p)
28/04/2023	-			EU	ECB Lagarde at Post-Eurogroup Meeting Press Conference
28/04/2023	-			EU	ECB Lagarde, Panetta, de Guindos at Eurogroup / ECOFIN Meeting
28/04/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
28/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
28/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Employment Cost Index
28/04/2023	1342/0942	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
28/04/2023	1400/1000	***		US	Final Michigan Sentiment Index
28/04/2023	1500/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)