Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TUESDAY - Japan CPI
Next week's CPI is expected to show a further downstep in y/y headline and core inflation momentum. The consensus looks for a 1.9% y/y headline outcome (prior 2.6%), while ex fresh food is expected to print the same (prior 2.3%). The metric which excludes fresh food and energy is projected at 3.3% (from 3.7% prior). Still, for the headline January 2023 was the peak in terms of y/y momentum, hence base effects are a factor. The BoJ is more focused on the current round of wage negotiations to help achieve sustainable inflation closer to its target. Hence we may not see a huge reaction to the upcoming CPI print.
TUESDAY - NBH Decision
Given the risks which warranted caution at the last MPC meeting in January have largely subsided, softer-than-expected inflation and GDP data is likely to facilitate a step-up in the easing pace to 100bps at this juncture. Nevertheless, the threat to FX stability of a more dovish policy mix poses downside risks given 75bp cuts have been delivered in the previous four meetings.
WEDNESDAY - RBNZ Decision
We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold at 5.5% at its February 28 meeting even though the labour market data were stronger than expected. It has been on hold since it last hiked in May last year and given that policy is restrictive and its last OCR profile didn't have any easing until H1 2025, we think that the RBNZ is more likely to keep rates "high for longer" rather than tighten again. The MPC is likely to sound cautious and there will be a lot of attention on the press conference and updated staff forecasts, with the timing of the return to target and the OCR profile of particular interest.
THURSDAY - US PCE Inflation
The January PCE deflator (out Thursday) will be the last reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge before the March FOMC meeting. Median analyst estimates for the headline reading based on strong January CPI and PPI inputs is 2.4% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M, with core seen at 2.8% Y/Y / 0.4% M/M - each of which would represent a stepdown on an annual basis but a monthly acceleration. On Feb 22, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson revealed that the Fed staff's estimates of PCE are exactly in line with analyst estimates - which incorporate what he called a "somewhat larger" and "disappointing" CPI reading which "highlights that the disinflation process is likely to be bumpy." Aside from the overall readings, there will be close attention paid to further deterioration in core services ex housing "supercore" inflation, which registered 0.28% M/M in December.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY - Eurozone Flash February Inflation
The Eurozone February flash inflation round begins next Thursday with France, Spain and Germany (where, as usual, state-level data precedes the release of the national print). The Eurozone-wide estimate is released at 1000GMT/1100CET on Friday (alongside Italy), with an early consensus looking for core HICP at 2.9% Y/Y (vs 3.3% prior) and headline at 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.8% prior). While a deceleration in core inflation to sub-3% for the first time since February 2022 will be encouraging for the ECB on the surface, Commerzbank note that the decline is largely due to base effects and inflation momentum is still at risk of accelerating on the month. Wage pressures continue to be cited as an upside driver of services inflationary pressures in the PMIs, but the latest flash round indicated that Red Sea tensions were having a limited impact on manufactures - a positive development for the core goods outlook.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 26/02/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | ES | PPI |
| 26/02/2024 | 0900/0900 |  | UK | BOE's Breeden at BOE agenda for Research Conference | |
| 26/02/2024 | 1100/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26/02/2024 | 1100/1100 | | UK | BOE's Pill at BOE Agenda for Research conference | |
| 26/02/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** |  | US | New Home Sales |
| 26/02/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 26/02/2024 | 1600/1700 |  | EU | ECB's Lagarde participates in debate on ECB 2022 Report | |
| 26/02/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 26/02/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 26/02/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 26/02/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 27/02/2024 | 2330/0830 | *** |  | JP | CPI |
| 27/02/2024 | 0001/0001 | * | | UK | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 26/02/2024 | 0040/1940 | | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 27/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | * |  | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27/02/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** |  | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 27/02/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | M3 |
| 27/02/2024 | 1000/1000 | * | | UK | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 27/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | * |  | CA | Capital and repair expenditure survey |
| 27/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 27/02/2024 | 1340/1340 | | UK | BOE's Ramsden at Association for Financial Markets | |
| 27/02/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 27/02/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 27/02/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 27/02/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 27/02/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 27/02/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 27/02/2024 | 1405/0905 | | US | Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr | |
| 27/02/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 27/02/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 27/02/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 27/02/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 27/02/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 28/02/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** |  | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 28/02/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** | | AU | Quarterly construction work done |
| 28/02/2024 | 0100/1400 | *** |  | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
| 28/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | PPI |
| 28/02/2024 | 0700/1500 | ** |  | CN | MNI China Liquidity Index (CLI) |
| 28/02/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 28/02/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 28/02/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 28/02/2024 | 1000/1100 | * | | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 28/02/2024 | 1100/1200 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in G20 and CB Governors meeting | |
| 28/02/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 28/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | | CA | Current account |
| 28/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | | CA | Payroll employment |
| 28/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | GDP |
| 28/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 28/02/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 28/02/2024 | 1530/1530 | | UK | BOE's Mann at FT future forum event 'The economic outlook..' | |
| 28/02/2024 | 1700/1200 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 28/02/2024 | 1715/1215 | | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | |
| 28/02/2024 | 1745/1245 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 29/02/2024 | 2350/0850 | * | | JP | Retail sales (p) |
| 29/02/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | | JP | Industrial production |
| 29/02/2024 | 0030/1130 | * | | AU | Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure |
| 29/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | Retail Sales |
| 29/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | SE | Retail Sales |
| 29/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | | SE | GDP |
| 29/02/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** | | FR | GDP (f) |
| 29/02/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 29/02/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** | | FR | HICP (p) |
| 29/02/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | PPI |
| 29/02/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** | | ES | HICP (p) |
| 29/02/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 29/02/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** | | CH | GDP |
| 29/02/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** | | DE | Unemployment |
| 29/02/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** | | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 29/02/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** | | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 29/02/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE M4 |
| 29/02/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 29/02/2024 | 1300/1400 | *** | | DE | HICP (p) |
| 29/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 29/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 29/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
| 29/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 29/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
| 29/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 29/02/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 29/02/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 29/02/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 29/02/2024 | 1550/1050 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 29/02/2024 | 1600/1100 | | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 29/02/2024 | 1600/1100 | ** | | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 29/02/2024 | 1815/1315 | | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester | |
| 01/03/2024 | 2200/0900 | ** | | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/03/2024 | 2330/0830 | * | | JP | Labour force survey |
| 01/03/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 29/02/2024 | 0110/2010 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 01/03/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/03/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** | | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/03/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** | | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/03/2024 | 0730/0830 | ** | | CH | Retail Sales |
| 01/03/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** | | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/03/2024 | 0845/0945 | ** | | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/03/2024 | 0850/0950 | ** | | FR | Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/03/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** | | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/03/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/03/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/03/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (p) |
| 01/03/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | Unemployment |
| 01/03/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | IT | HICP (p) |
| 01/03/2024 | - | *** | | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/03/2024 | 1400/1400 | | UK | BOE's Pill Speech at Cardiff University | |
| 01/03/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 01/03/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/03/2024 | 1515/1015 | | US | Fed Governor Chris Waller | |
| 01/03/2024 | 1715/1215 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 01/03/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 01/03/2024 | 1830/1330 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 01/03/2024 | 2030/1530 | | US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.