MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Eurozone Sentiment Indicators Improving

MONDAY

Germany Ifo Survey: The December Ifo Survey will likely show continued improvements across the German business climate, current assessment and expectations. Consensus is looking for the business climate index to improve by one point to 87.3, current assessment by a softer 0.4 points to 93.5 and expectations up two points at 82.0.

UK CBI Industrial Trends: UK industrial orders are set to weaken further in December from -5 to -9. This follows a further slide in the December prelim manufacturing PMI, which fell by almost two points further into contractive territory to the lowest reading since May 2020. Persistently high inflation, recessionary concerns, downbeat demand and increased borrowing costs are all generating negative outlooks for the UK industrial economy.

Eurozone Construction: Euro area construction faces another tough month in October, after coming close to stalling at +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y in September. Higher interest rates are reducing investment appetite in the bloc.

TUESDAY

Germany PPI: German factory-gate inflation is projected to have eased further in the October data, by an anticipated -2.1% m/m, cooling to +30.0% y/y from +34.5% y/y as lower energy prices and weak demand conditions feed through into swiftly easing price pressures.

US Housing Starts: In November, the US housing market is projected to have slowed further. Both US building permits and housing starts are seen weakening by -1.8% m/m, extending a second month of contraction. Mortgage rates have risen sharply in recent months as the Fed has tightened monetary policy, yet recent weeks have seen rates ease into December, implying some improvements in borrowing costs into year-end.

Canada Retail Trade: Canadian retail sales should improve in October, with a +1.3% m/m uptick anticipated (ex. Auto) following the -0.7% m/m fall in sales in September.

Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence remains deeply pessimistic for the bloc, yet December will likely see a third consecutive improvement in sentiment. A moderate 1.9-point improvement to -22 is forecasted, as consumers see the economic crunch and uncertainty as beyond the worst.

Bank of Japan Meeting: The BOJ is firmly expected to hold the Policy Balance Rate at -0.100% at the December meeting.

WEDNESDAY

Germany Consumer Confidence: In continuation of the gentle upwards trend, German consumer confidence is seen improving by around two points to -38 in the January projection. Minor improvements in sentiment are unlikely to filter through into enhanced consumer spending in the near-term, and are more a reflection of consumers acclimatising to a recessionary economic environment.

UK CBI Distributive Trades: UK retail advance data from the December CBI report is anticipated to show further declines in sales as consumer spending remains muted into year-end. In the recent contractive national November retail data retail is set to drag on Q4 GDP.

Canada CPI: Canadian inflation is expected to decline by -0.1% m/m in November, with the headline annualised figure to moderate by 0.4pp to +6.5% y/y, implying that inflation is firmly beyond the June peak of 8.1% y/y. The BoC hiked 50bps to 4.25% this month in what had been seen a close call with 25bps whilst more surprisingly indicating only considering the need for further hikes ahead.

Expectations are currently largely seen as pausing or a 25bp hike at the Jan 25 meeting and will be in part shaped by the November CPI print.

US Existing Home Sales: In line with Tuesday’s housing starts data, existing home sales are expected to have taken a hit in November, projected to contract by -4.7% m/m. New home sales data due Friday will likely highlight similar trends.

US Conference Board Consumer Confidence: US consumer sentiment will likely see a moderate one-point boost in December to around 101, breaking a two-month streak of declining confidence as sentiment stabilises in a weaker-than-expected end to the year.

THURSDAY

UK GDP Second Estimate: The final UK Q3 2022 GDP print should show a -0.2% q/q contraction.

US GDP: The third estimate for US GDP is set to confirm an annualised GDP level of +2.9% q/q.

FRIDAY

Italy Consumer/Business Confidence: Italian consumer confidence is projected to tick up by 0.7 points to 98.8, whilst manufacturing confidence is seen stalling at 102.5. This adds to the eurozone trend of improving outlooks, largely coupled with economies having passed apparent peak inflation levels.

Canada GDP: Canadian monthly GDP is forecasted to hold pace in October at +0.1% m/m, as growth slows into year-end.

US Durable Goods Orders: The prelim estimate will hint at the onset of contractionary durable goods orders, echoing evidence of falling new orders highlighted by PMI data over the past months. November durable goods orders are expected to fall by -0.6% m/m and stall at 0.0% when excluding transport, after +0.5% and +0.6% m/m in October.

US Personal Income/Consumption: November personal income and consumption data should see both measures slow as inflation continues to dampen disposable income. Personal income is seen slowing to +0.3% m/m and spending to +0.2% m/m (from +0.7% and +0.8%).

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
19/12/2022	0800/0900			EU	ECB de Guindos Speech at Economia Forum
19/12/2022	0900/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index
19/12/2022	1000/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
19/12/2022	1100/1100	**		UK	CBI Industrial Trends
19/12/2022	1330/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
19/12/2022	1500/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
19/12/2022	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
19/12/2022	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
20/12/2022	0115/0915			CN	PBOC Rate Decision
20/12/2022	0700/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/12/2022	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
20/12/2022	1000/1100	**		EU	EZ Current Account
20/12/2022	-	***		JP	BOJ policy announcement
20/12/2022	1330/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
20/12/2022	1330/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
20/12/2022	1330/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
20/12/2022	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
20/12/2022	1500/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
21/12/2022	0700/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
21/12/2022	0700/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
21/12/2022	0700/1500	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Suvey
21/12/2022	0800/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
21/12/2022	1100/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
21/12/2022	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
21/12/2022	1330/0830	***		CA	CPI
21/12/2022	1330/0830	*		US	Current Account Balance
21/12/2022	1500/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
21/12/2022	1530/1030	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
21/12/2022	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
22/12/2022	0700/0700	***		UK	GDP Second Estimate
22/12/2022	0700/0800	**		SE	PPI
22/12/2022	0700/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
22/12/2022	0720/0220			ID	Indonesia Central Bank Rate Decision
22/12/2022	0745/0845	*		FR	Retail Sales
22/12/2022	0900/1000	*		NO	Norway Unemployment Rate
22/12/2022	1000/1100	**		IT	PPI
22/12/2022	1100/0600	*		TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
22/12/2022	-			UK	House of Commons Recess Starts
22/12/2022	1330/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
22/12/2022	1330/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
22/12/2022	1330/0830	***		US	GDP (3rd)
22/12/2022	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
22/12/2022	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
22/12/2022	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
23/12/2022	0745/0845	**		FR	PPI
23/12/2022	0800/0900	**		ES	PPI
23/12/2022	0800/0900	***		ES	GDP (f)
23/12/2022	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
23/12/2022	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
23/12/2022	1330/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
23/12/2022	1330/0830	**		US	durable goods new orders
23/12/2022	1330/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
23/12/2022	1400/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
23/12/2022	1500/1000	***		US	New Home Sales
23/12/2022	1500/1000	***		US	Final Michigan Sentiment Index
27/12/2022	1330/0830	**		US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
27/12/2022	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
27/12/2022	1400/0900	**		US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
27/12/2022	1400/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
27/12/2022	1500/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
27/12/2022	1500/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
27/12/2022	1530/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
28/12/2022	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
28/12/2022	1500/1000	**		US	NAR pending home sales
28/12/2022	1530/1030	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
29/12/2022	0800/0900			ES	Retail Sales
29/12/2022	0900/1000	**		EU	M3
29/12/2022	1330/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
29/12/2022	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
29/12/2022	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks