-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Eyes on EZ CPI & US Nonfarm Payrolls
Flash CPI for the Eurozone and US Nonfarm Payrolls will take centre stage in the upcoming week’s data releases.
MONDAY
No data of note. May bank holiday in the UK, Whit Monday observed in parts of Europe and Memorial Day in the US.
TUESDAY
Sweden GDP: The Swedish economy advanced 0.2% q/q in the three months to March in flash data. This implies a positive GDP Q1 print to follow, rebounding from the 0.5% q/q Q4 contraction.
Switzerland GDP: Consensus is looking for Swiss Q1 GDP to also be expansionary, albeit only marginally so at +0.1% q/q following a flat Q4 print.
Spain Flash HICP: Spanish May inflation will kick off the key eurozone HICP data round. Spanish HICP is expected to ease by 0.4pp to +3.4% y/y after the brief energy-base effects jump which underpinned the April uptick. Core will be closely watched.
Eurozone Economic Sentiment: Economic confidence for the euro area is anticipated to moderate slightly by 0.3pp to 99.0 in May, indicating a fifth month of the index largely stalling around the 99-99.7 range, as upticks in retail and services outlooks fail to outweigh manufacturing pessimism.
In the May flash, consumer confidence edged up by a mere 0.1pp to -17.4. Further detail will be released on Tuesday. Of importance will be whether we see a continuation in swiftly cooling consumer price expectations, after inflation expectations slowed to a December 2020 low in last month's report – the latest ECB survey saw expectations tick up.
US Consumer Confidence: Following the recent data on European consumer sentiment signalling a general pause in the upward trend, US consumer confidence is anticipated to move 1.4 points lower to 99.9, dipping below 100 for the first time since July. Darkening expectations will likely underpin a May decline, after holding largely below 80 (the level associated with a looming recession) since February 2022. As such, consumer demand in the US is unlikely to see revival in the near-term.
WEDNESDAY
France HICP / Final GDP: French harmonised inflation pencilled in to ease again in the May flash, dipping 0.4pp to +6.5% y/y after having risen 0.2pp in April due to energy base-effects. Core CPI remains pressured due to stronger services prices, which will likely see little relief in May. Final GDP data should confirm the French economy advanced by a modest +0.2% q/q in Q1, after having stalled in Q4 2022. The Q1 GDP uptick was largely due to a recovery in net trade.
After Germany posted a deeper contraction than the initial flash print for Q1, downwards revisions to France or to Italy’s final print later in the morning could see the eurozone print downgraded to flat growth for Q1.
Germany Unemployment / HICP: Following a slew of state data in the morning, German HICP is anticipated to ease by 0.8pp to +6.8% y/y in the May flash estimate. HICP eased 0.2pp to +7.6% y/y in April, as food prices (and to a small degree services) slowed. Note: the "Germany Ticket" for transport will have deflationary effects on transport costs, coming into effect in May. Keep an eye out for the MNI projection for German CPI in the late morning, which will indicate any surprises likely to materialise.
German May unemployment is seen stable at 5.6%, only marginally higher than at the turn of the year.
Italy Final GDP / HICP: Consensus is looking for Italian HICP to cool by 1.1pp to +7.6% y/y, the lowest annualised rate since June 2022. The brief re-acceleration in inflation in April was due to energy base-effects.
The Italian economy expanded by a substantial +0.5% q/q in the Q1 prelim estimate, rebounding from the -0.1% q/q contraction in Q4. Positive growth in services and industry alongside stronger inventories and net exports underpinned the boost.
US MNI Chicago PMI: The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, precedes the strongly correlated ISM index to be released on Thursday. The May print follows an April uptick to the highest since August 2022, albeit remaining in contractive territory.
THURSDAY
Final Manufacturing PMIs: The final manufacturing PMI data should confirm that major economies’ manufacturing sectors edged a tick deeper into contractionary territory in May, as weak demand drags on production, despite input costs pressures subsiding.
Eurozone Flash HICP / Unemployment: The eurozone aggregate inflation rate should resume a downwards trajectory in the May flash data, after edging up by 0.1pp to +7.0% y/y in April as annualised energy prices rebounded and services inflation accelerated. Consensus is looking for a 0.7pp deceleration to +6.3% y/y, which would be the lowest since February 2022. Slowing food and goods prices would underpin this decline.
The core index is expected to edge down by another 0.1 pp to +5.5% y/y, remaining only 0.2pp below the euro-era high. Whilst core goods are likely to continue a downward trend, recent PMI data flagged further upticks in services prices, which add upside risks to the euro area core CPI print. On the flipside, the introduction of the “Germany Ticket” for transport will add downwards pressure to the transport component.
April unemployment data is also due and projected to hold steady at the euro-era low of 6.5%.
US ISM Manufacturing: The US ISM manufacturing PMI has remained stuck in contraction since November 2022 and is likely to be largely unchanged from the April level of 47.1. With credit conditions tightening and new orders remaining lacklustre, outlooks for US manufacturing appear downtrodden in the near-term.
FRIDAY
France Industrial Production: After a flat Q1 contribution, French industrial production will kick off the round of April eurozone IP data, with consensus pencilling in a modest +0.2% m/m expansion. April's manufacturing PMI signalled a contractionary start to Q2, and the fastest deterioration in business conditions since May 2020. A slight downside risk is on the cards and outlooks remain stagnant.
US Nonfarm Payrolls: May nonfarm payrolls are expected to slow by close to 70k to +180k according to the consensus estimate, with the unemployment rate possibly ticking up 0.1pp to 3.5% from the current 50-year low.
Barring unexpected developments this summer, the Fed’s tightening cycle looks like it has concluded at a terminal rate of 5.00-5.25% following the 25bp hike at the May FOMC meeting. At the press conference Chair Powell reiterated that the labour market remains "extraordinarily tight" but there are some signs that supply and demand in the labour market are coming back into better balance. He noted that wage growth needs to fall to around 3% to be consistent with 2% inflation over a longer period of time, but wages are not a principal driver of inflation today.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
30/05/2023 | 2301/0001 | * | UK | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index | |
30/05/2023 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | labor forcer survey | |
30/05/2023 | 0130/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals | |
30/05/2023 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | GDP | |
30/05/2023 | 0700/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (p) | |
30/05/2023 | 0700/0900 | *** | CH | GDP | |
30/05/2023 | 0700/0900 | ** | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator | |
30/05/2023 | 0700/0900 | * | CH | KOF Economic Barometer | |
30/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | M3 | |
30/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | PPI | |
30/05/2023 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator | |
30/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Current account | |
30/05/2023 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index | |
30/05/2023 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index | |
30/05/2023 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index | |
30/05/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence | |
30/05/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey | |
30/05/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
30/05/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
30/05/2023 | 1700/1300 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | ||
30/05/2023 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill | |
31/05/2023 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial production | |
31/05/2023 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail sales (p) | |
31/05/2023 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly | |
31/05/2023 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | Quarterly construction work done | |
31/05/2023 | 0530/0730 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI | |
31/05/2023 | 0600/1400 | ** | CN | MNI China Liquidity Suvey | |
31/05/2023 | 0630/0830 | ** | CH | Retail Sales | |
31/05/2023 | 0630/0730 | UK | DMO to Publish Gilt Op Calendar for Jul-Sep | ||
31/05/2023 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (p) | |
31/05/2023 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | PPI | |
31/05/2023 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) | |
31/05/2023 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending | |
31/05/2023 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment | |
31/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | *** | IT | GDP (f) | |
31/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI | |
31/05/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** | UK | BOE M4 | |
31/05/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals | |
31/05/2023 | 0900/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) | |
31/05/2023 | 0900/1100 | *** | DE | Saxony CPI | |
31/05/2023 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
31/05/2023 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) | |
31/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts | |
31/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry | |
31/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined | |
31/05/2023 | 1230/1430 | EU | ECB Lagarde Q&A at Generation Euro Students' Awards | ||
31/05/2023 | 1250/0850 | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | ||
31/05/2023 | 1250/0850 | US | Fed Governor Miki Bowman | ||
31/05/2023 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
31/05/2023 | 1315/1415 | UK | BOE Mann Panellist at Pictet Family Forum | ||
31/05/2023 | 1342/0942 | ** | US | MNI Chicago PMI | |
31/05/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level | |
31/05/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | JOLTS quits Rate | |
31/05/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey | |
31/05/2023 | 1730/1330 | US | Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker | ||
31/05/2023 | 1730/1330 | US | Fed Governor Philip Jefferson | ||
31/05/2023 | 1800/1400 | US | Fed Beige Book | ||
01/06/2023 | 2300/0900 | ** | AU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/06/2023 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI | |
01/06/2023 | 0130/1130 | * | AU | Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure | |
01/06/2023 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI | |
01/06/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales | |
01/06/2023 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/06/2023 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/06/2023 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/06/2023 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/06/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/06/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) | |
01/06/2023 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) | |
01/06/2023 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment | |
01/06/2023 | 0930/1130 | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech at German Savings Banks Conference | ||
01/06/2023 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales | |
01/06/2023 | 1215/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report | |
01/06/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Jobless Claims | |
01/06/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
01/06/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Non-Farm Productivity (f) | |
01/06/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final) | |
01/06/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index | |
01/06/2023 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending | |
01/06/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks | |
01/06/2023 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
01/06/2023 | 1700/1300 | US | Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker | ||
02/06/2023 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Lending Finance Details | |
02/06/2023 | 0645/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production | |
02/06/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.