MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Eyes on EZ CPI & US Nonfarm Payrolls

Flash CPI for the Eurozone and US Nonfarm Payrolls will take centre stage in the upcoming week’s data releases.

MONDAY

No data of note. May bank holiday in the UK, Whit Monday observed in parts of Europe and Memorial Day in the US.

TUESDAY

Sweden GDP: The Swedish economy advanced 0.2% q/q in the three months to March in flash data. This implies a positive GDP Q1 print to follow, rebounding from the 0.5% q/q Q4 contraction.

Switzerland GDP: Consensus is looking for Swiss Q1 GDP to also be expansionary, albeit only marginally so at +0.1% q/q following a flat Q4 print.

Spain Flash HICP: Spanish May inflation will kick off the key eurozone HICP data round. Spanish HICP is expected to ease by 0.4pp to +3.4% y/y after the brief energy-base effects jump which underpinned the April uptick. Core will be closely watched.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment: Economic confidence for the euro area is anticipated to moderate slightly by 0.3pp to 99.0 in May, indicating a fifth month of the index largely stalling around the 99-99.7 range, as upticks in retail and services outlooks fail to outweigh manufacturing pessimism.

In the May flash, consumer confidence edged up by a mere 0.1pp to -17.4. Further detail will be released on Tuesday. Of importance will be whether we see a continuation in swiftly cooling consumer price expectations, after inflation expectations slowed to a December 2020 low in last month's report – the latest ECB survey saw expectations tick up.

US Consumer Confidence: Following the recent data on European consumer sentiment signalling a general pause in the upward trend, US consumer confidence is anticipated to move 1.4 points lower to 99.9, dipping below 100 for the first time since July. Darkening expectations will likely underpin a May decline, after holding largely below 80 (the level associated with a looming recession) since February 2022. As such, consumer demand in the US is unlikely to see revival in the near-term.

WEDNESDAY

France HICP / Final GDP: French harmonised inflation pencilled in to ease again in the May flash, dipping 0.4pp to +6.5% y/y after having risen 0.2pp in April due to energy base-effects. Core CPI remains pressured due to stronger services prices, which will likely see little relief in May. Final GDP data should confirm the French economy advanced by a modest +0.2% q/q in Q1, after having stalled in Q4 2022. The Q1 GDP uptick was largely due to a recovery in net trade.

After Germany posted a deeper contraction than the initial flash print for Q1, downwards revisions to France or to Italy’s final print later in the morning could see the eurozone print downgraded to flat growth for Q1.

Germany Unemployment / HICP: Following a slew of state data in the morning, German HICP is anticipated to ease by 0.8pp to +6.8% y/y in the May flash estimate. HICP eased 0.2pp to +7.6% y/y in April, as food prices (and to a small degree services) slowed. Note: the "Germany Ticket" for transport will have deflationary effects on transport costs, coming into effect in May. Keep an eye out for the MNI projection for German CPI in the late morning, which will indicate any surprises likely to materialise.

German May unemployment is seen stable at 5.6%, only marginally higher than at the turn of the year.

Italy Final GDP / HICP: Consensus is looking for Italian HICP to cool by 1.1pp to +7.6% y/y, the lowest annualised rate since June 2022. The brief re-acceleration in inflation in April was due to energy base-effects.

The Italian economy expanded by a substantial +0.5% q/q in the Q1 prelim estimate, rebounding from the -0.1% q/q contraction in Q4. Positive growth in services and industry alongside stronger inventories and net exports underpinned the boost.

US MNI Chicago PMI: The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, precedes the strongly correlated ISM index to be released on Thursday. The May print follows an April uptick to the highest since August 2022, albeit remaining in contractive territory.

THURSDAY

Final Manufacturing PMIs: The final manufacturing PMI data should confirm that major economies’ manufacturing sectors edged a tick deeper into contractionary territory in May, as weak demand drags on production, despite input costs pressures subsiding.

Eurozone Flash HICP / Unemployment: The eurozone aggregate inflation rate should resume a downwards trajectory in the May flash data, after edging up by 0.1pp to +7.0% y/y in April as annualised energy prices rebounded and services inflation accelerated. Consensus is looking for a 0.7pp deceleration to +6.3% y/y, which would be the lowest since February 2022. Slowing food and goods prices would underpin this decline.

The core index is expected to edge down by another 0.1 pp to +5.5% y/y, remaining only 0.2pp below the euro-era high. Whilst core goods are likely to continue a downward trend, recent PMI data flagged further upticks in services prices, which add upside risks to the euro area core CPI print. On the flipside, the introduction of the “Germany Ticket” for transport will add downwards pressure to the transport component.

April unemployment data is also due and projected to hold steady at the euro-era low of 6.5%.

US ISM Manufacturing: The US ISM manufacturing PMI has remained stuck in contraction since November 2022 and is likely to be largely unchanged from the April level of 47.1. With credit conditions tightening and new orders remaining lacklustre, outlooks for US manufacturing appear downtrodden in the near-term.

FRIDAY

France Industrial Production: After a flat Q1 contribution, French industrial production will kick off the round of April eurozone IP data, with consensus pencilling in a modest +0.2% m/m expansion. April's manufacturing PMI signalled a contractionary start to Q2, and the fastest deterioration in business conditions since May 2020. A slight downside risk is on the cards and outlooks remain stagnant.

US Nonfarm Payrolls: May nonfarm payrolls are expected to slow by close to 70k to +180k according to the consensus estimate, with the unemployment rate possibly ticking up 0.1pp to 3.5% from the current 50-year low.

Barring unexpected developments this summer, the Fed’s tightening cycle looks like it has concluded at a terminal rate of 5.00-5.25% following the 25bp hike at the May FOMC meeting. At the press conference Chair Powell reiterated that the labour market remains "extraordinarily tight" but there are some signs that supply and demand in the labour market are coming back into better balance. He noted that wage growth needs to fall to around 3% to be consistent with 2% inflation over a longer period of time, but wages are not a principal driver of inflation today.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
30/05/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
30/05/2023	2350/0850	*		JP	labor forcer survey
30/05/2023	0130/1130	*		AU	Building Approvals
30/05/2023	0600/0800	***		SE	GDP
30/05/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	HICP (p)
30/05/2023	0700/0900	***		CH	GDP
30/05/2023	0700/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
30/05/2023	0700/0900	*		CH	KOF Economic Barometer
30/05/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	M3
30/05/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	PPI
30/05/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
30/05/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Current account
30/05/2023	1300/0900	**		US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
30/05/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
30/05/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Quarterly Price Index
30/05/2023	1400/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
30/05/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
30/05/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
30/05/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
30/05/2023	1700/1300			US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
30/05/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
31/05/2023	2350/0850	**		JP	Industrial production
31/05/2023	2350/0850	*		JP	Retail sales (p)
31/05/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	CPI Inflation Monthly
31/05/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	Quarterly construction work done
31/05/2023	0530/0730	***		DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
31/05/2023	0600/1400	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Suvey
31/05/2023	0630/0830	**		CH	Retail Sales
31/05/2023	0630/0730			UK	DMO to Publish Gilt Op Calendar for Jul-Sep
31/05/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
31/05/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	PPI
31/05/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	GDP (f)
31/05/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Spending
31/05/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	Unemployment
31/05/2023	0800/1000	***		IT	GDP (f)
31/05/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	Bavaria CPI
31/05/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE M4
31/05/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE Lending to Individuals
31/05/2023	0900/1100	***		IT	HICP (p)
31/05/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	Saxony CPI
31/05/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
31/05/2023	1200/1400	***		DE	HICP (p)
31/05/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts
31/05/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
31/05/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined
31/05/2023	1230/1430			EU	ECB Lagarde Q&A at Generation Euro Students' Awards
31/05/2023	1250/0850			US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins
31/05/2023	1250/0850			US	Fed Governor Miki Bowman
31/05/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
31/05/2023	1315/1415			UK	BOE Mann Panellist at Pictet Family Forum
31/05/2023	1342/0942	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
31/05/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS jobs opening level
31/05/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS quits Rate
31/05/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
31/05/2023	1730/1330			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
31/05/2023	1730/1330			US	Fed Governor Philip Jefferson
31/05/2023	1800/1400			US	Fed Beige Book
01/06/2023	2300/0900	**		AU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/06/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/06/2023	0130/1130	*		AU	Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure
01/06/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI
01/06/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Retail Sales
01/06/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/06/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/06/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/06/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/06/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/06/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01/06/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (p)
01/06/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Unemployment
01/06/2023	0930/1130			EU	ECB Lagarde Speech at German Savings Banks Conference
01/06/2023	-	***		US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
01/06/2023	1215/0815	***		US	ADP Employment Report
01/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
01/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
01/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Non-Farm Productivity (f)
01/06/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final)
01/06/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Manufacturing Index
01/06/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Construction Spending
01/06/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
01/06/2023	1500/1100	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
01/06/2023	1700/1300			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
02/06/2023	0130/1130	**		AU	Lending Finance Details
02/06/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Industrial Production
02/06/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Employment Report