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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - EZ Flash HICP and US NFP Highlight

MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US ISM Surveys

Early consensus for the coming week's US March ISM Manufacturing (Monday April 1) and Services (Weds April 3) reports point to a slight uptick in activity in both sectors versus February (48.4 for manufacturing, up 0.6 points; 52.8 for services, up 0.2 points). This would continue the theme of mixed results at the start of the year, with below-consensus readings in February following strong beats in January. Regional Federal Reserve Banks' surveys released already have shown unexpectedly weak manufacturing in March, and while the MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 2.6 points in March to 41.4, the pullback wasn't as dramatic when using the national ISM weights. As for Services, ISM chair Anthony Nieves told MNI in an interview following February's data that in spite of the weaker Services figures, the new orders component warrants optimism about continued moderate growth in the sector, but he acknowledged that activity has been volatile in recent months.

WEDNESDAY - Eurozone March Flash Inflation

Eurozone inflation is seen relatively steady in March, with analyst consensus for headline HICP at 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior) and core at 3.0% (3.1% prior). As the ECB Governing Council consensus appears to be converging on a first rate cut at the June meeting, incoming inflation data is taking heightened focus. The recent trajectory in underlying HICP has seemingly been disinflationary enough to satisfy even ardent hawks that further progress could warrant a cut by mid-year. The March inflation round's most closely-watched quirk will be the early arrival of the Easter holiday weekend. This calendar effect is expected to primarily, and temporarily, impact services prices to the upside. While the consensus is that this will translate a positive effect on inflation via services (with a 5th consecutive 4.0% services reading potentially on the cards), which will reverse in April, some analysts see uncertainty both ways, with potential for downside misses as well. At a country level, we have already had data from Spain, which was a touch below consensus. The Italian and French prints are due to be released on Friday March 29, before Germany comes on Tuesday April 2.

THURSDAY - NBP Decision

The National Bank of Poland is unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.75% on Thursday. Last month, the MPC expressed concern with risks to the inflation outlook, which remain tilted firmly to the upside. Although Governor Adam Glapiński declared that inflation is probably back to the +2.5% Y/Y target, he stressed that heightened uncertainty prevents the Council from resuming interest-rate action.

THURSDAY - BCCh Decision

Latest central bank survey data suggest that the BCCh may slow the easing pace in April and cut the overnight rate by 75bp to 6.50%. Large inflation surprises since the last meeting, an increase in inflation expectations and a more cautious Fed stance are among the factors supporting the case for a moderation in the pace of rate cuts. However, forecasters remain divided, with some expecting another 100bp move.

FRIDAY - US Labour Market Data

The US Employment Report for March is expected to show a month-on-month moderation in jobs growth that will maintain what Fed Chair Powell this month characterized as a "relatively tight" labor market, but one in which "supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance". Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to pull back to 216k (vs 275k prior, 265k 3-month average), with private payrolls at 178k (223k prior). Revisions will as always closely be eyed, following sizeable downgrades to prior months in February's report. Average hourly earnings are seen picking up to 0.3% M/M (0.1% prior), on steady average weekly hours (34.3). The unemployment rate is seen pulling back to 3.8% from the unexpected uptick from 3.7% to 3.9% in Feb, the highest in over 2 years - and will be eyed in the context of the end-year projection of 4.0% pencilled in by the median FOMC participant in March.


DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
29/03/20240745/0845***FR HICP (p)
29/03/20240745/0845**FR PPI
29/03/20240745/0845**FR Consumer Spending
29/03/20241000/1100***IT HICP (p)
29/03/20241230/0830**US Personal Income and Consumption
29/03/20241230/0830**US Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
29/03/20241515/1115US San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
29/03/20241530/1130US Fed Chair Jerome Powell
29/03/20241700/1300**US Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
31/03/20240130/0930***CN CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/03/20240130/0930**CN CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
01/04/20242350/0850***JP Tankan
01/04/20240030/0930**JP S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/04/20240145/0945**CN S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI
01/04/20241345/0945***US S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final)
01/04/20241400/1000***US ISM Manufacturing Index
01/04/20241400/1000*US Construction Spending
01/04/20241430/1030**CA BOC Business Outlook Survey
01/04/20241530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
01/04/20241530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
02/04/20242200/0900**AUS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/04/20242301/0001*UK BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
02/04/20240030/1130AU RBA Meeting Minutes
02/04/20240630/0830**CH Retail Sales
02/04/20240715/0915**ES S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/04/20240745/0945**IT S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/04/20240750/0950**FR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/04/20240755/0955**DE S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/04/20240800/1000***DE Bavaria CPI
02/04/20240800/1000***DE North Rhine Westphalia CPI
02/04/20240800/1000**EU ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
02/04/20240800/1000**EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/04/20240830/0930**UK BOE M4
02/04/20240830/0930**UK BOE Lending to Individuals
02/04/20240830/0930**UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
02/04/20241200/1400***DE HICP (p)
02/04/2024-***US Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
02/04/20241255/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
02/04/20241400/1000**US Factory New Orders
02/04/20241400/1000***US JOLTS jobs opening level
02/04/20241400/1000***US JOLTS quits Rate
02/04/20241530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
02/04/20241600/1200US Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
02/04/20241600/1200US New York Fed's John Williams
02/04/20241730/1330US San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
03/04/20240700/0300*TR Turkey CPI
03/04/20240900/1100***EU HICP (p)
03/04/20240900/1100**EU Unemployment
03/04/20241100/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
03/04/20241215/0815***US ADP Employment Report
03/04/20241400/1000***US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
03/04/20241430/1030**US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
03/04/20241600/1200US Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
04/04/20240030/1130*AU Building Approvals
04/04/20240630/0830***CH CPI
04/04/20240830/0930UK BOE's Decision Maker Panel Data
04/04/20240900/1100**EU PPI
04/04/20240900/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
04/04/20241230/0830***US Jobless Claims
04/04/20241230/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
04/04/20241230/0830**US Trade Balance
04/04/20241230/0830**CA International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
04/04/20241400/1000US Philly Fed's Pat Harker
04/04/20241430/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
04/04/20241615/1215US Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
04/04/20241645/1245US Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
04/04/20241800/1400US Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
04/04/20242320/1920US St Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem
05/04/20240030/1130**AU Trade Balance
05/04/20240600/0800**DE Manufacturing Orders
05/04/20240600/0800**DE Import/Export Prices
05/04/20240645/0845*FR Industrial Production
05/04/20240700/0900**ES Industrial Production
05/04/20240830/1030**EU S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI
05/04/20240830/0930**UKS&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
05/04/20240900/1100**EU Retail Sales
05/04/20241230/0830***US Employment Report
05/04/20241230/0830***CA Labour Force Survey
05/04/20241400/1000*CA Ivey PMI
05/04/20241700/1300**US Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
05/04/20241900/1500*US Consumer Credit

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