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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - EZ HICP, BanRep, US Payrolls, Fed & Norges

MONDAY-TUESDAY - EUROZONE INFLATION

Underlying Eurozone inflation is expected to dip again in April, with core HICP declining for a 9th consecutive month to 2.7% Y/Y (2.9% prior), though headline is set to stall at 2.4% Y/Y (2.4% prior). In short, services price disinflation is expected to drag core inflation lower, while headline is set to be underpinned by Y/Y upticks in energy and food prices.
A reading in line with consensus would provide further “confidence that inflation is converging to the [inflation] target in a sustained manner” (per the April monetary policy statement) for the ECB to start cutting rates as expected in June, and indeed, even a modest upside miss might not be enough to push back the initial cut.

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MONDAY-TUESDAY - EUROZONE INFLATION

Underlying Eurozone inflation is expected to dip again in April, with core HICP declining for a 9th consecutive month to 2.7% Y/Y (2.9% prior), though headline is set to stall at 2.4% Y/Y (2.4% prior). In short, services price disinflation is expected to drag core inflation lower, while headline is set to be underpinned by Y/Y upticks in energy and food prices.
A reading in line with consensus would provide further “confidence that inflation is converging to the [inflation] target in a sustained manner” (per the April monetary policy statement) for the ECB to start cutting rates as expected in June, and indeed, even a modest upside miss might not be enough to push back the initial cut.

Keep reading...Show less