Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MONDAY-TUESDAY - EUROZONE INFLATION
Underlying Eurozone inflation is expected to dip again in April, with core HICP declining for a 9th consecutive month to 2.7% Y/Y (2.9% prior), though headline is set to stall at 2.4% Y/Y (2.4% prior). In short, services price disinflation is expected to drag core inflation lower, while headline is set to be underpinned by Y/Y upticks in energy and food prices.
A reading in line with consensus would provide further “confidence that inflation is converging to the [inflation] target in a sustained manner” (per the April monetary policy statement) for the ECB to start cutting rates as expected in June, and indeed, even a modest upside miss might not be enough to push back the initial cut.
TUESDAY - JAPAN LABOUR FORCE SURVEY
In Japan, the data will depict the impact of the auto sector rebounding from a hit it took when a safety scandal caused a company to idle production. Industrial output is likely to spring back from a dip and jobs data will show stronger demand for workers in the auto sector.
TUESDAY - EUROZONE Q1 GDP
Eurozone GDP is expected to remain almost flat on a sequential basis at +0.1% Q/Q (-0.1% prior), with all of Germany, France, and Italy expected to come in in line with the overall EZ print. Apart from the growth perspective, the release will also be eyed from a GDP deflator angle, a broader inflation measure than HICP also monitored by the ECB.
TUESDAY - BANK OF THE REPUBLIC (COLOMBIA)
All of the initial surveyed estimates for the April 30 BanRep meeting point to the central bank cutting the overnight lending rate by 50bp to 11.75%. Cautious messaging and the lack of further inflation data point to the easing pace not being accelerated at this juncture, although another split vote is highly likely given finance minister Bonilla’s stance on bolder action to promote growth. Indeed, just this week, Bonilla has said that the central bank must cut by 400bp this year and by 75-100bp per meeting.
TUESDAY - NZ Q1 EMPLOYMENT
The market foresees an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in Q1 from 4.0% previously, coupled with a moderation in wage growth. While employment continues its upward trajectory, it lags behind the rapid pace of population expansion.
WEDNESDAY - FED
Persistently high inflation readings to start the year have shaken the FOMC’s confidence in initiating rate cuts, but the April 30-May 1 meeting is too soon for them to reconsider their easing bias. Though Chair Powell could confirm that a June cut is a doubtful prospect unless major surprises emerge, he is likely to affirm that the FOMC currently sees a higher-for-longer policy as appropriate and sufficient to quell inflation.In other words, rate hikes are not at all the Committee’s base case – though the degree to which Powell plays down this possibility will be key to the market’s takeaway from the meeting. Changes to the Statement are likely to be limited, with the forward rate guidance remaining intact, though the Committee’s characterization of recent inflation will be scrutinized for any hawkish shift. The main potential policy shift at this meeting is to the balance sheet, with a good chance that the Committee will announce that it will soon – if not immediately - slow the pace of asset runoff. MNI’s FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum has effectively been moved up a notch across the board toward the “more hawkish” end for all participants since our March meeting preview.
FRIDAY - NORGES BANK
Only minor adjustments to the bank's rate path projections in March signal a Bank that's closely wedded to its guidance, leaving markets waiting until well into H2 for the first easing step of the cycle. While March CPI-ATE came in below both the market's and Norges Bank forecast, it will take further notable weakness in the inflation impulse to sway the bank, which are also keenly aware of the higher-than-expected wage-setting round struck with unions in early April. On a similar vein, a slower pace of disinflation among the food and beverages category will also give the bank room to pause this week, leaving the bank likely to stick to their guidance for rates to hold at current levels for "some time ahead".
FRIDAY - US LABOUR MARKET / PAYROLLS
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for April comes after another surprisingly strong report for March, with its 303k increase making for a ~90k beat along with upward revisions. Consensus currently sits at 250k as estimates in recent months have been pushed higher to allow for immigration-led population growth. Those supply side gains should help limit market reaction to upside surprises in jobs growth, barring particularly large beats. Downside surprises aside, greater focus should be on the overall labor market balance as evidenced by latest changes in the unemployment rate (seen unchanged at 3.8%) and average hourly earnings growth (also seen unchanged at 0.3% M/M).
The market foresees an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in Q1 from 4.0% previously, coupled with a moderation in wage growth. While employment continues its upward trajectory, it lags behind the rapid pace of population expansion.
FRIDAY - ISM SERVICES
Friday also sees US ISM services for April land just 90 minutes after payrolls. Tuesday’s preliminary S&P Global US PMI releases saw a sizeable dovish reaction to softer than expected manufacturing and services details. Analyst consensus currently sees a small uplift from 51.4 to 52.0 after two monthly declines but we suspect the details will once again help guide market reaction. With payrolls already released, expect even more attention on prices. The sub-component has slumped a combined 10.6pts over the past two releases to 53.4 in March for its lowest since Mar 2020 at the depths of the pandemic, but that decline did follow a 7.3pt increase in January so we shouldn’t rule out further large moves. One thing to bear in mind when looking at this prices paid series is this from the Fed’s Beige Book: “Another frequent comment was that firms’ ability to pass cost increases on to consumers had weakened considerably in recent months, resulting in smaller profit margins.”
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 29/04/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | Retail Sales |
| 29/04/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** |  | ES | HICP (p) |
| 29/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** |  | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 29/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 29/04/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 29/04/2024 | 0900/1100 | * | | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 29/04/2024 | 1200/1400 | *** | | DE | HICP (p) |
| 29/04/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** |  | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 29/04/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 29/04/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 29/04/2024 | 1920/2120 | | EU | ECB's De Guindos remarks at Euro50Group Dinner | |
| 30/04/2024 | 2301/0001 | * |  | UK | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30/04/2024 | 2330/0830 | * |  | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 30/04/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** | | JP | Industrial Production |
| 30/04/2024 | 2330/0830 | * | | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 30/04/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** |  | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/04/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** | | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/04/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** |  | AU | Retail Trade |
| 30/04/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** | | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/04/2024 | 0530/0730 | *** |  | FR | GDP (p) |
| 30/04/2024 | 0530/0730 | ** | | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 30/04/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Retail Sales |
| 30/04/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 30/04/2024 | 0645/0845 | *** | | FR | HICP (p) |
| 30/04/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | PPI |
| 30/04/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** | | ES | GDP (p) |
| 30/04/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** |  | CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 30/04/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** | | DE | Unemployment |
| 30/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** |  | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | GDP (p) |
| 30/04/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE M4 |
| 30/04/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 30/04/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (p) |
| 30/04/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q |
| 30/04/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y |
| 30/04/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30/04/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 30/04/2024 | 1100/1200 | | UK | Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report 2024 Q1 | |
| 30/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Cost Index |
| 30/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 30/04/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 30/04/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 30/04/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 30/04/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 30/04/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 30/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 30/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | housing vacancies |
| 30/04/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 30/04/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 01/05/2024 | 2245/1045 | *** |  | NZ | Quarterly Labor market data |
| 01/05/2024 | 2300/0900 | ** | | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/05/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/05/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/05/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 01/05/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 01/05/2024 | - | *** | | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/05/2024 | 1215/0815 | *** | | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 01/05/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding |
| 01/05/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/05/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/05/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/05/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 01/05/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 01/05/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 01/05/2024 | 1800/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Statement |
| 01/05/2024 | 2015/1615 | | CA | BOC Governor at Senate Banking Committee | |
| 02/05/2024 | 2350/0850 | | JP | BoJ Meeting Minutes | |
| 02/05/2024 | 0130/1130 | * | | AU | Building Approvals |
| 02/05/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade Balance |
| 02/05/2024 | 0630/0830 | *** | | CH | CPI |
| 02/05/2024 | 0630/0830 | ** | | CH | Retail Sales |
| 02/05/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** | | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/05/2024 | 0745/0945 | ** | | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/05/2024 | 0750/0950 | ** | | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/05/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** | | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/05/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | IT | PPI |
| 02/05/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/05/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 02/05/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 02/05/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 02/05/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity |
| 02/05/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 02/05/2024 | 1245/0845 | | CA | BOC's Macklem appears at House finance committee. | |
| 02/05/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Factory New Orders |
| 02/05/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 02/05/2024 | 2015/2215 | | EU | ECB's Lane lecture at University of Stanford | |
| 03/05/2024 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Industrial Production |
| 03/05/2024 | 0700/0300 | * |  | TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/05/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** |  | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
| 03/05/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Unemployment |
| 03/05/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Report |
| 03/05/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 03/05/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.