Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Developed Markets
MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US Treasury Refunding
The next quarterly Treasury Refunding process begins on July 29 with the marketable borrowing estimates, with the Refunding announcement itself on July 31. There is relatively little intrigue expected with the coupon auction size announcement: Treasury confirmed in May that it anticipated no more upsizing to coupon sizes for at least several quarters. Some analysts have raised the possibility of Treasury changing or dropping that guidance in light of large ongoing fiscal deficits, while there will be some focus on whether Treasury’s end-2024 cash balance forecasts take into account the reinstatement of the debt ceiling on January 2, 2025. For now, bigger fiscal shortfalls are likely to be met with higher-than-average bill issuance in the near-term, all else being equal. And future coupon size increases may have to wait until after the November elections when there is more clarity on the fiscal policy trajectory.
TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - Eurozone July Flash Inflation And Q2 GDP
Next week's busy Eurozone data calendar is headlined by the July flash inflation releases. Spanish and German prints are due on Tuesday, before France, Italy and the region-wide release on Wednesday. Current Bloomberg consensus sees Eurozone core HICP decelerating slightly to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.9% prior) and headline remaining steady at 2.5%. In general, the data is not expected to shed much new light on the inflation trajectory for the ECB. Services inflation is expected to remain stubborn around 4.0% Y/Y (the start of the Olympic Games may add some upside risks to French services), while we continue to be interested in how much more disinflation is left in core goods. Next week also features Q2 preliminary GDP reports across the region, which will be in focus given President Lagarde’s commentary at the July ECB press conference, where downside risks to growth were emphasised.
WEDNESDAY - Australia Q2 CPI
Q2 and June CPI are released on July 31 and were always going to be a focus, but after May saw headline at 4.0% and the trimmed mean at 4.4%, the data will be watched even more closely. If the data print in line with RBA May expectations of 3.8% for both headline and trimmed mean, requiring 1.0% q/q and 0.8% quarterly rises, then rates are likely to be held at the August 6 meeting. But the monthly CPIs for April/May are pointing to higher underlying inflation. Given high correlations, NZ Q2 data suggest that Australia should see a moderation in quarterly non-tradeables growth though.
WEDNESDAY - BoJ Decision
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to unveil a plan to roughly halve bond purchases in the coming years at its policy-setting meeting on July 30-31. A recent Reuters report, citing people familiar with the matter, supports this expectation. While the BoJ's policy board is anticipated to hold its policy rate unchanged next week, the same Reuters report indicated that the BoJ might also consider raising interest rates. The decision will depend on how long board members want to wait for clarity on whether consumption will recover and maintain inflation around the bank’s 2% target. In contrast to the Reuters report, a recent Bloomberg survey showed that only 29% of the 48 economists surveyed expected a rate hike next week.
WEDNESDAY - Fed Decision
The FOMC will mark the passage of just over a year since its last rate move when it holds fed funds at 5.25-5.50% at the July 30-31 meeting, but the focus for the market is on any signals of a cut at the next meeting in September. Without a new set of economic projections, attention will first be on the new policy statement (released Wednesday, 1400ET/1900UK). It could re-characterize the language around inflation and the labor market in light of recent data suggesting softening since June’s FOMC, and/or note that the Committee is increasingly focused on upside risks to unemployment. More impactful would be an adjustment to the forward rate guidance, which currently states that the Committee won’t cut rates “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent”. While this is not widely expected to be changed, any adjustments would be taken as a hint that September’s meeting is “live” for a cut: this could range from a subtle tweak (“some further” vs “greater” “confidence”), to a much more substantive rewrite (less likely) if the FOMC wants to send a stronger message that cuts are coming. Chair Powell’s press conference (Wednesday, 1430ET/1930UK) will as always be closely watched: he is likely to keep the door open to a September cut without endorsing the idea, reiterating that the FOMC is making decisions meeting-by-meeting, while hinting that good July/Aug data could provide sufficient confidence for easing.
MONDAY / THURSDAY - Chancellor Reeves Statement and BoE Decision
Chancellor Reeves is due to make a statement to parliament on Monday on the state of the public finances. She is also expected to confirm the date of the Budget (we pencil in 30 October) and make an announcement on public sector pay (following the independent pay review body recommending doctors, nurses and teachers receive a higher-than-budgeted for 5.5% increase). Media reports have reported a shortfall of GBP19-20bln or even higher and across the spectrum (from the left-leaning Guardian to the right-leaning Telegraph) are noting that Reeves is likely to raise taxes in the autumn.
Thursday’s MPC policy decision is on a knife-edge, and we have long characterised it was 50/50 (with markets pricing a 46% probability of a cut but the vast majority of analyst previews we have read looking for a cut). The June Minutes seemed to lower the bar to a cut, and since then we have had a slightly larger upside surprise to services inflation (albeit very narrowly focused), a further downside surprise to core goods / food inflation and labour market data on the soft side. We expect all of the external MPC members to continue to vote in the same way as in June and for Ramsden to continue to vote for a cut. It then comes down to whether three out of four of Bailey, Breeden, Lombardelli and Pill vote for a cut or not. We saw Pill’s speech two weeks ago as non-committal rather than hawkish – but consider him to be the most hawkish internal member. We have not heard from Bailey, Breeden or Lombardelli for some time given the communications blackout during the election campaign.
FRIDAY - US Labour Market Report
The July nonfarm payrolls report takes center stage for macro data next week. Any signs of further labor market moderation could weigh heavily as rate cut expectations have risen strongly following surprisingly soft US CPI inflation in June, Chair Powell talking on greater dual mandate progress and global growth concerns. The unemployment rate is likely to again be looked at closely after its surprise increase to 4.05% back in May, being a better gauge of broad balance than outright payrolls growth. Powell said earlier this month that the labor market is now fully back in balance and indeed this June rate nudged above the median FOMC forecast of 4.0% for 4Q24. Consensus looks for another rounded 4.1% in June but it’s starting to get close to the 4.2% median forecast for out in 4Q25, a forecast that back in June helped see the median participant anticipate just one 25bp cut this year before 100bp of cuts through 2025. That’s in contrast to the market currently seeing closer to three 25bp cuts in what’s left of 2024. Payrolls growth should of course continue to have a large impact on market pricing as well, seen moderating to 175k after a slightly stronger than expected 206k in May but a beat that was offset by a return of heavy downward revisions of -111k.
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY - Copom, BCCh and BanRep Decisions
In Brazil, the Copom is widely expected to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 10.50% for a second successive meeting, as policymakers remain wary about the impact of on-going fiscal risks and associated weakness in BRL. In Chile, the BCCh interest rate decision looks set to be a close call, with the market split between a further 25bp cut and a pause, as this phase of the easing cycle draws towards a close. Meanwhile, BanRep looks set to deliver another 50bp interest rate cut to 10.75% in Colombia, before the easing pace is stepped up in September.
THURSDAY - CNB Decision (Czechia)
The Czech National Bank may slow the pace of rate cuts to 25bp despite benign June CPI data. Alongside its rate decision, the central bank will publish a new set of macroeconomic forecasts.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 29/07/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** |  | SE | GDP |
| 29/07/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | SE | Retail Sales |
| 29/07/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | BOE M4 |
| 29/07/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 29/07/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 29/07/2024 | - | | UK | Chancellor Reeves statement on Public Finances | |
| 29/07/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** |  | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 29/07/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 29/07/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 29/07/2024 | 1900/1500 | *** | | US | US Treasury Marketable Borrowing Estimates |
| 30/07/2024 | 2301/0001 | * | | UK | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30/07/2024 | 2330/0830 | * |  | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 30/07/2024 | 0130/1130 | * |  | AU | Building Approvals |
| 30/07/2024 | 0530/0730 | *** |  | FR | GDP (p) |
| 30/07/2024 | 0530/0730 | ** | | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 30/07/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** |  | DE | GDP (p) |
| 30/07/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** |  | ES | HICP (p) |
| 30/07/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** | | ES | GDP (p) |
| 30/07/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** |  | CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 30/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** |  | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 30/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 30/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q |
| 30/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y |
| 30/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 30/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | * | | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 30/07/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 30/07/2024 | 1200/1400 | *** | | DE | HICP (p) |
| 30/07/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 30/07/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 30/07/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 30/07/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 30/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 30/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Housing Vacancies |
| 30/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 30/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 30/07/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 30/07/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 31/07/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | | JP | Industrial Production |
| 31/07/2024 | 2350/0850 | * | | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 31/07/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** |  | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/07/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** | | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/07/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Retail Trade |
| 31/07/2024 | 0130/1130 | *** | | AU | CPI inflation Quarterly |
| 31/07/2024 | 0130/1130 | *** | | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 31/07/2024 | 0200/1100 | *** | | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
| 31/07/2024 | 0600/1400 | ** | | CN | MNI China Liquidity Index (CLI) |
| 31/07/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 31/07/2024 | 0645/0845 | *** | | FR | HICP (p) |
| 31/07/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | PPI |
| 31/07/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** | | DE | Unemployment |
| 31/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (p) |
| 31/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | IT | HICP (p) |
| 31/07/2024 | 1000/1200 | ** | | IT | PPI |
| 31/07/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 31/07/2024 | 1215/0815 | *** | | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 31/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Cost Index |
| 31/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 31/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding |
| 31/07/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 31/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 31/07/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 31/07/2024 | 1800/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Statement and Rate Decision |
| 01/08/2024 | 2300/0900 | ** | | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/08/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade Balance |
| 01/08/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade price indexes |
| 01/08/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** | | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/08/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** | | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2024 | 0745/0945 | ** | | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2024 | 0750/0950 | ** | | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** | | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Unemployment |
| 01/08/2024 | 1100/1200 | *** | | UK | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 01/08/2024 | 1130/1230 | | UK | BoE Press Conference | |
| 01/08/2024 | - | *** | | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 01/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 01/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity |
| 01/08/2024 | 1300/1400 | | UK | BOE Monthly Decision Maker Panel Data | |
| 01/08/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/08/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 01/08/2024 | 1615/1715 | | UK | BOE's Pill MPR virtual Q&A | |
| 02/08/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Lending Finance Details |
| 02/08/2024 | 0630/0830 | *** | | CH | CPI |
| 02/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Industrial Production |
| 02/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | * | | IT | Industrial Production |
| 02/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | * | | IT | Retail Sales |
| 02/08/2024 | 1115/1215 | | UK | BOE's Pill at National MPC Agency Briefing | |
| 02/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Report |
| 02/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Factory New Orders |
| 02/08/2024 | 1430/1030 | | CA | BOC market participants survey | |
| 02/08/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.