MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - Fed, BoE, BoJ Headline

Developed Markets

MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US Treasury Refunding

The next quarterly Treasury Refunding process begins on July 29 with the marketable borrowing estimates, with the Refunding announcement itself on July 31. There is relatively little intrigue expected with the coupon auction size announcement: Treasury confirmed in May that it anticipated no more upsizing to coupon sizes for at least several quarters. Some analysts have raised the possibility of Treasury changing or dropping that guidance in light of large ongoing fiscal deficits, while there will be some focus on whether Treasury’s end-2024 cash balance forecasts take into account the reinstatement of the debt ceiling on January 2, 2025. For now, bigger fiscal shortfalls are likely to be met with higher-than-average bill issuance in the near-term, all else being equal. And future coupon size increases may have to wait until after the November elections when there is more clarity on the fiscal policy trajectory.