Developed Markets
TUESDAY - Canada CPI
CPI for August on Tuesday is the focal point of the Canadian calendar although retail sales on Friday is increasingly of note with the BoC avidly watching for stronger economic growth to help limit the extent to which excess supply is building. Recall that the latest monthly GDP data pointed to softer momentum heading into Q3. The BoC’s preferred average of the trim and median measures has been particularly welcoming for the BoC in trend terms with a six-month run rate of just 2.2% annualized, firmly within the 1-3% target band. The three-month does sit a little higher at 2.7% and possibly saw only a slightly softer pace as of August judging by early analyst estimates. With 33bp of cuts priced for the October BoC decision, the data could help guide either towards a fourth consecutive 25bp cut or an acceleration in easing. That said, barring particularly large surprises, we see the report having less impact than usual. Despite regional differences, Wednesday's FOMC decision can have huge sway on the near-term outlook for Canadian monetary policy. We will also see the September labour and CPI reports before the BoC decision on Oct 23.
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)
Bank Indonesia meets on September 18 and will announce its decision just hours before the Fed. With meetings every month, BI has the flexibility to watch and wait and is unlikely to feel the pressure to cut rates on the day the Fed is widely expected to begin easing, especially given uncertainties. FX stability will remain its focus. With inflation little changed in August and within the band and growth expected to be over 5% in 2024, there is little urgency to cut rates from current levels of 6.25%. It is more likely to consider easing at its October 16 meeting instead but may still want time to monitor market developments and see further IDR appreciation before cutting its policy rate.
WEDNESDAY - BCB Decision (Brazil)
Shortly after the anticipated FOMC rate cut, the BCB are now expected to begin a tightening cycle, hiking the Selic rate by 25bps to 10.75%. Deanchored inflation expectations, robust growth and pressure on the exchange rate are likely to be cited as reasons for the hawkish pivot. The BCB’s Focus survey expect three 25bp rate hikes for the remainder of 2024, however, some analysts are forecasting even more aggressive tightening.
THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
The CBRT is widely expected to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50% for the sixth consecutive meeting, though some sell-side analysts see rate cuts commencing as early as November – largely owing to favourable inflation developments in recent months. While headline CPI has plunged sharply from the summer peak, much of the decline can be attributed to significant base effects, and therefore a hawkish stance is still justified until underlying inflation trends begin to slow.
THURSDAY - SARB Decision (South Africa)
The SARB is expected to deliver the first rate cut of the cycle, easing by 25bps to 8.00% just a day after the release of local inflation data and the Fed's monetary policy decision. A cut in the US would make it easier for South African policymakers to follow suit, but domestic inflation dropping close to the +4.5% Y/Y target mid-point and moderating inflation expectations could also be cited to support looser policy.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 14/09/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** |  CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 14/09/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Retail Sales |
| 14/09/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Industrial Output |
| 14/09/2024 | 0200/1000 | ** | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
| 16/09/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16/09/2024 | 0810/1010 |  EU | ECB's De Guindos at VII Foro Banca event | |
| 16/09/2024 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16/09/2024 | 1200/1400 | EU | ECB's Lane Speech at European Investment Bank Chief Economists' Meeting | |
| 16/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 16/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 16/09/2024 | 1300/0900 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 16/09/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 16/09/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 17/09/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** |  DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 17/09/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 17/09/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 17/09/2024 | 1215/0815 | ** | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 17/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CPI |
| 17/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 17/09/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 17/09/2024 | 1300/1500 | EU | ECB's Elderson in supervisory effectiveness panel | |
| 17/09/2024 | 1315/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 17/09/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 17/09/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 17/09/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 17/09/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 17/09/2024 | 2200/1800 | CA | BOC Sr Deputy Rogers fireside chat on women in finance. | |
| 18/09/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** |  JP | Trade |
| 18/09/2024 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Machinery orders |
| 18/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Consumer inflation report |
| 18/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Producer Prices |
| 18/09/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | Unemployment |
| 18/09/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (f) |
| 18/09/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Construction Production |
| 18/09/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 18/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 18/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 18/09/2024 | 1300/1500 | EU | MNI Connect Video Conference on Euro Area Macro Projections | |
| 18/09/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 18/09/2024 | 1730/1330 | CA | BOC Minutes (Summary of Deliberations) | |
| 18/09/2024 | 1800/1400 | *** | US | Fed Rate Decision / FOMC Statement |
| 18/09/2024 | 2000/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
| 19/09/2024 | 2245/1045 | *** |  NZ | GDP |
| 19/09/2024 | 0130/1130 | *** |  AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 19/09/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19/09/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** |  NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
| 19/09/2024 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB's Schnabel participates on Monetary Policy discussion | |
| 19/09/2024 | 1100/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 19/09/2024 | 1100/0700 | *** |  TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 19/09/2024 | 1100/1200 | GB | BOE's Monetary Policy Summary and minutes | |
| 19/09/2024 | 1200/0800 | CA | BOC Deputy Vincent speech. | |
| 19/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 19/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 19/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | US | Current Account Balance |
| 19/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 19/09/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 19/09/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 19/09/2024 | 1440/1640 | EU | ECB's Schnabel chairs Jean Monnet Lecture at ECB Conference | |
| 19/09/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
| 20/09/2024 | 2301/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 20/09/2024 | 2330/0830 | *** | JP | CPI |
| 20/09/2024 | 0200/1100 | *** | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
| 20/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 20/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 20/09/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | PPI |
| 20/09/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** |  FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 20/09/2024 | 0830/0930 | GB | BOE's Mann Speech at Central Bank Research Association | |
| 20/09/2024 | 1215/0815 | CA | BOC Governor Macklem speech at AI conference | |
| 20/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 20/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 20/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 20/09/2024 | 1400/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 20/09/2024 | 1500/1700 | EU | ECB's Lagarde Banking Lecture Organised by the IMF | |
| 20/09/2024 | 1530/1730 | EU | ECB's Lagarde converses with IMF Georgieva | |
| 20/09/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 20/09/2024 | 1800/1400 | US | Philly Fed's Pat Harker |