MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Flash PMIs Due

MONDAY

Sweden CPI: The Riksbank’s closely watched CPIF rate (based on fixed interest rates) is anticipated to cool by 0.8pp to +9.4% y/y in January. This follows the February Riksbank meeting’s rate path which indicated around a 30% probability of a larger 50bp April hike, whilst surprising markets with the announcement of the start of active government bond sales from April. The next Riksbank policy meet is end-April.

Eurozone Construction / Flash Consumer Confidence: December construction data will likely point towards further contraction for the bloc. The construction PMI registered a ninth consecutive month of contraction in January, implying the year began on shaky footing as home-building slowing to the softest contraction since August. Firms flagged continued concern over projects being paused due to the high inflation and interest rate environment.

Flash consumer confidence for February is likely to edge up another two points from -20.9 recorded in January. Government energy bill support is driving the bulk of improvements in consumers' outlooks, yet whether this filters into higher consumer spending remains uncertain.

TUESDAY

Flash PMIs: February flash PMIs are expected to see small improvements France, Germany, the eurozone and UK, with French manufacturing and German and euro area services enjoying another month back in expansionary territory. Attention will be on whether the decline in new orders softens further, and if the January boost to selling price inflation was short-lived.

Both UK services and manufacturing PMIs will likely remain moderately contractive for a seventh month underscoring recession risks.

The US February flash PMIs are also projected to remain contractive albeit minor improvements.

ZEW Survey: The ZEW survey of financial market experts is forecasted to improve further in February, expected up over six points at 23.0 on expectations after the huge January rebound, whilst the current situation assessment is seen rising over 8 points to -50.0. Easing inflation, improved optimism surrounding energy supply and lower energy prices (assisted by the introduction of government price caps) added to the optimism boost. Furthermore, easing China restrictions should improve export demand for Germany, which has been a key downward driver in factory orders over the past months.

Canada CPI: Canadian inflation is likely to ease a few tenths of a percent in the January data across both headline and core from +6.3% y/y and +5.3% y/y. Shelter inflation will likely ease, helped by lower house prices.

WEDNESDAY

MNI China Liquidity Survey: The February China Liquidity Index is due on Wednesday. Conditions across China’s interbank market tightened in January, due to increased cash demands ahead of the New Year holiday and bond issuance.

Germany Final CPI / IFO: The German final CPI print for January will likely be confirmed at +1.0% m/m and +8.7% y/y, however, the focus will largely be on reweightings of both the consumer basket and federal states. Destatis will release these details alongside the release, whereby of interest will be also their treatment of back-paid government energy support. State data will also be released throughout the morning.

In line with improvements in the ZEW survey, the German IFO survey is projected to tick up around one point on the business climate and current assessment indices, and a further two points on expectations. Lower energy prices and fiscal support and easing bottlenecks remain key in improving sentiment.

Italy Final CPI: Italian final HICP will likely be confirmed at +10.9% y/y in January, implying a 1.4pp deceleration from December.

FOMC Minutes: Particular focus will be on the February 1 decision minutes for detail on whether the FOMC discussed the conditions for a pause. Of interest will also be how FOMC members saw economic developments and the balance of risks on growth and inflation changing.

THURSDAY

Eurozone Final CPI: A lot of uncertainty surrounds the January final eurozone CPI print, which was calculated based on a Eurostat estimate for Germany accounting for around 28% of the bloc’s aggregate CPI print. Based on MNI calculations, the January flash German number all else equal would be consistent with around a 0.2ppt revision higher to the final HICP print.

US GDP: The Q4 second estimate due on Thursday follows the real GDP beat for the Q4 advance (+2.9% vs cons +2.6%) which was much less flattening in the details, heavily boosted by changes in inventories.

Personal consumption confounded expectations of an acceleration as it eased from +2.3% to +2.1% (cons +2.9%) whilst the drag from private investment intensified from -0.6pps to -1.2pps, its largest since the pandemic - all seasonally adjusted annualised.

FRIDAY

UK GfK Consumer Confidence: A two-point uptick to -43 in UK GfK consumer confidence is pencilled in for February, after dipping in January to end the Q4 rally. All sub-indices remain severely depressed, with the January solid decline in the major purchases index implying that spending will remain pressured in the near term, along with growth.

Germany GfK Consumer Confidence: German sentiment is projected to improve almost four points to -30 in the March outlook survey. February improvements failed to feed into the propensity to buy subindex, which slid further as uncertainty and living costs remain elevated.

Germany Final Quarterly GDP: The -0.2% q/q contraction in Q4 2022 is likely to be confirmed on Friday.

US Personal Income & Consumption / New Home Sales: US spending is anticipated to expand by +1.3% m/m in January, in line with rebounds associated with the severe weather conditions which dragged on spending in December. New home sales should remain robust, in line with the December expansion of +616k.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
20/02/2023	0300/1100			CN	PBOC LPR
20/02/2023	0700/0800	***		SE	Inflation report
20/02/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
20/02/2023	1500/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
21/02/2023	2200/0900	***		AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
21/02/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
21/02/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
21/02/2023	0745/0845	*		FR	Retail Sales
21/02/2023	0815/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
21/02/2023	0815/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/02/2023	0830/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
21/02/2023	0830/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/02/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
21/02/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/02/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
21/02/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
21/02/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Services PMI flash
21/02/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
21/02/2023	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
21/02/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
21/02/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
21/02/2023	1330/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
21/02/2023	1330/0830	***		CA	CPI
21/02/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
21/02/2023	1445/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
21/02/2023	1445/0945	***		US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
21/02/2023	1500/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
21/02/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
21/02/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
21/02/2023	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
21/02/2023	1800/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
22/02/2023	0001/0001	*		UK	XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
22/02/2023	0030/1130	***		AU	Quarterly construction work done
22/02/2023	0030/1130	***		AU	Quarterly wage price index
22/02/2023	0630/0730	***		DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
22/02/2023	0700/0800	***		DE	HICP (f)
22/02/2023	0700/1500	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Suvey
22/02/2023	0745/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
22/02/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
22/02/2023	0900/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index
22/02/2023	0900/1000	***		DE	Hesse CPI
22/02/2023	0900/1000	***		DE	Bavaria CPI
22/02/2023	0900/1000			DE	Destatis Press Conference on Updated CPI Weights
22/02/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	Saxony CPI
22/02/2023	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
22/02/2023	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
22/02/2023	1400/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
22/02/2023	1630/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
22/02/2023	1800/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
22/02/2023	2230/1730			US	New York Fed's John Williams
23/02/2023	0030/1130	*		AU	Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure
23/02/2023	0100/1400	***		NZ	RBNZ official cash rate decision
23/02/2023	0930/0930			UK	BOE Mann Speech at Resolution Foundation
23/02/2023	1000/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
23/02/2023	1100/0600	*		TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
23/02/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
23/02/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises
23/02/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
23/02/2023	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
23/02/2023	1330/0830	***		US	GDP (2nd)
23/02/2023	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
23/02/2023	1550/1050			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
23/02/2023	1600/1100	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
23/02/2023	1600/1100	**		US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
23/02/2023	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
23/02/2023	1900/1400			US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
24/02/2023	0001/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
24/02/2023	0700/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
24/02/2023	0745/0845	**		FR	Consumer Sentiment
24/02/2023	0800/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
24/02/2023	0800/0900	**		ES	PPI
24/02/2023	0900/1000	***		DE	GDP (f)
24/02/2023	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & Panetta at G20 Finance Minister Meet
24/02/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
24/02/2023	1500/1000	***		US	New Home Sales
24/02/2023	1500/1000	***		US	Final Michigan Sentiment Index
24/02/2023	1515/1015			US	Fed Governor Philip Jefferson
24/02/2023	1515/1015			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
24/02/2023	1600/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
24/02/2023	1630/1130			US	St. Louis Fed's James Bullard
24/02/2023	1630/1630			UK	BOE Tenreyro Panellist at NY Fed
24/02/2023	1830/1330			US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins
24/02/2023	1830/1330			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller